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A Bayesian and Classical Econometric Evaluation of the Effect of Cell Phones on Motor Vehicle Fatality Rates

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Author Info
Richard Fowles ()
Peter Loeb ()
William A. Clarke ()
Abstract

This paper examines the potential effect of cell phones on motor vehicle fatality rates normalized for other driving related and socioeconomic factors. The model used is nonlinear so as to address both life-taking and life-saving attributes of cell phones. The models are evaluated using classical methods along with Bayesian Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA). The use of both classical and Bayesian methods diminishes the model and parameter uncertainties which afflict more conventional modeling methods which rely on only one of the two methods. The results indicate the presence of both life-taking and life-saving attributes of cell phones on motor vehicle fatality rates depending on the volume of cell phone subscribers in existence.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Rutgers University, Newark in its series Working Papers Rutgers University, Newark with number 2009-001.

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Length: 23
Date of creation: Feb 2009
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Handle: RePEc:run:wpaper:2009-001

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Related research
Keywords: Motor Vehicle Fatality Rates; Cell Phones; Bayesian Econometric Methods; Extreme Bounds Analysis; Classical Econometric Methods;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
L92 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Railroads and Other Surface Transportation

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Garbacz, Christopher & Kelly, J Gregory, 1987. "Automobile Safety Inspection: New Econometric and Benefit/Cost Estimates," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 763-71, June.
  2. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Granger, Clive W. J. & Uhlig, Harald F., 1990. "Reasonable extreme-bounds analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 159-170. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Snyder, Donald, 1989. "Speeding, Coordination, and the 55-MPH Limit: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 922-25, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Fowles, Richard & Loeb, Peter D, 1989. "Speeding, Coordination, and the 55-MPH Limit: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 916-21, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Levy, David T & Asch, Peter, 1989. "Speeding, Coordination, and the 55-MPH Limit: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 913-15, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Leamer, Edward E, 1982. "Sets of Posterior Means with Bounded Variance Priors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 725-36, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Keeler, Theodore E, 1994. "Highway Safety, Economic Behavior, and Driving Environment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 684-93, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Loeb, Peter D, 1990. "Automobile Safety Inspection: Further Econometric Evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 22(12), pages 1697-1704, December.
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