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A Bayesian and Classical Econometric Evaluation of the Effect of Cell Phones on Motor Vehicle Fatality Rates

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  • Richard Fowles

    ()

  • Peter Loeb

    ()

  • William A. Clarke

    ()

Abstract

This paper examines the potential effect of cell phones on motor vehicle fatality rates normalized for other driving related and socioeconomic factors. The model used is nonlinear so as to address both life-taking and life-saving attributes of cell phones. The models are evaluated using classical methods along with Bayesian Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA). The use of both classical and Bayesian methods diminishes the model and parameter uncertainties which afflict more conventional modeling methods which rely on only one of the two methods. The results indicate the presence of both life-taking and life-saving attributes of cell phones on motor vehicle fatality rates depending on the volume of cell phone subscribers in existence.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, Rutgers University, Newark in its series Working Papers Rutgers University, Newark with number 2009-001.

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Length: 23
Date of creation: Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:run:wpaper:2009-001

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Keywords: Motor Vehicle Fatality Rates; Cell Phones; Bayesian Econometric Methods; Extreme Bounds Analysis; Classical Econometric Methods;

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  1. Levy, David T & Asch, Peter, 1989. "Speeding, Coordination, and the 55-MPH Limit: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 913-15, September.
  2. Keeler, Theodore E, 1994. "Highway Safety, Economic Behavior, and Driving Environment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 684-93, June.
  3. Frank J. Chaloupka & Henry Saffer & Michael Grossman, 1991. "Alcohol Control Policies and Motor Vehicle Fatalities," NBER Working Papers 3831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
  5. Clive W. J. Granger & Harald F. Uhlig, 1988. "Reasonable extreme bounds analysis," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 2, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Fowles, Richard & Loeb, Peter D, 1989. "Speeding, Coordination, and the 55-MPH Limit: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 916-21, September.
  7. Leamer, Edward E, 1982. "Sets of Posterior Means with Bounded Variance Priors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 725-36, May.
  8. Loeb, Peter D, 1995. "The Effectiveness of Seat-Belt Legislation in Reducing Injury Rates in Texas," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 81-84, May.
  9. Snyder, Donald, 1989. "Speeding, Coordination, and the 55-MPH Limit: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 922-25, September.
  10. Loeb, Peter D., 2001. "The effectiveness of seat belt legislation in reducing driver-involved injury rates in Maryland," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 297-310, August.
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