Skyscrapers and the Skyline: Manhattan, 1895-2004
AbstractThis paper investigates the determinants of skyscraper building cycles in Manhattan from 1895 to 2004. We first provide a simple model of the market for tall buildings. Then we empirically estimate the determinants of the time series of the number of skyscraper completions and their average heights over the 110 year period. We estimate the model under the assumption of rational expectations and myopic expectations, and find that the myopic model provides a better fit of the data. Furthermore, we find that several local and national variables determine both the number of completions and the average height of skyscrapers, including New York City area population; national employment in finance, insurance and real estate; building costs; access to financing; property tax rates and zoning regulations.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, Rutgers University, Newark in its series Working Papers Rutgers University, Newark with number 2007-002.
Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2007
Date of revision:
Skyscrapers; building cycles; building height; Manhattan; New York City; myopic expectations; rational expectations;
Other versions of this item:
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- N61 - Economic History - - Manufacturing and Construction - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
- N62 - Economic History - - Manufacturing and Construction - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
- R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
- R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-04-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-CUL-2007-04-09 (Cultural Economics)
- NEP-HIS-2007-04-09 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-URE-2007-04-09 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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Working Papers Rutgers University, Newark
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