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On the Possibility of Informationally Efficient Markets

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  • David Goldbaum

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Abstract

In a dynamic asset pricing model informed traders receive a noisy signal of the value of a risky asset while uninformed traders learn to extract the information from the price. The relative popularity of the two strategies depends on past performance. The asymptotic properties of the model and the possibility of an informationally efficient market depend on whether the population dynamics determine the level of popularity of the strategies or the direction of innovation in popularity. Allowing all traders to access both types of information introduces a stable fixed point, but also a paradox of inconsistency.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, Rutgers University, Newark in its series Working Papers Rutgers University, Newark with number 2004-009.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:run:wpaper:2004-009

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Keywords: Efficient Markets; Learning; Dynamics; Computational Economics;

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  1. Routledge, Bryan R, 1999. "Adaptive Learning in Financial Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 1165-1202.
  2. repec:att:wimass:9621 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2008. "Replicator dynamics in a Cobweb model with rationally heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 224-244, February.
  4. Sanford J Grossman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 1997. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1908, David K. Levine.
  5. Goldbaum, David, 2005. "Market efficiency and learning in an endogenously unstable environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 953-978, May.
  6. William A. Brock & Blake D. LeBaron, 1995. "A Dynamic Structural Model for Stock Return Volatility and Trading Volume," NBER Working Papers 4988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June.
  8. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
  9. Sethi, Rajiv & Franke, Reiner, 1995. "Behavioural Heterogeneity under Evolutionary Pressure: Macroeconomic Implications of Costly Optimisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(430), pages 583-600, May.
  10. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Convergence of Least-Squares Learning in Environments with Hidden State Variables and Private Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1306-22, December.
  11. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  12. Timmermann, Allan, 1996. "Excess Volatility and Predictability of Stock Prices in Autoregressive Dividend Models with Learning," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(4), pages 523-57, October.
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