IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rug/rugwps/13-861.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Quantitative Cross Impact Analysis with Latent Semantic Indexing

Author

Listed:
  • D. THORLEUCHTER
  • D. VAN DEN POEL

Abstract

Cross impact analysis (CIA) consists of a set of related methodologies that predict the occurrence probability of a specific event and that also predict the conditional probability of a first event given a second event. The conditional probability can be interpreted as the impact of the second event on the first. Most of the CIA methodologies are qualitative that means the occurrence and conditional probabilities are calculated based on estimations of human experts. In recent years, an increased number of quantitative methodologies can be seen that use a large number of data from databases and the internet. Nearly 80% of all data available in the internet are textual information and thus, knowledge structure based approaches on textual information for calculating the conditional probabilities are proposed in literature. In contrast to related methodologies, this work proposes a new quantitative CIA methodology to predict the conditional probability based on the semantic structure of given textual information. Latent semantic indexing is used to identify the hidden semantic patterns standing behind an event and to calculate the impact of the patterns on other semantic textual patterns representing a different event. This enables to calculate the conditional probabilities semantically. A case study shows that this semantic approach can be used to predict the conditional probability of a technology on a different technology.

Suggested Citation

  • D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2013. "Quantitative Cross Impact Analysis with Latent Semantic Indexing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/861, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:13/861
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://wps-feb.ugent.be/Papers/wp_13_861.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel D. Lee & H. Sebastian Seung, 1999. "Learning the parts of objects by non-negative matrix factorization," Nature, Nature, vol. 401(6755), pages 788-791, October.
    2. Yu, Li & Hurley, Terrance & Kliebenstein, James & Orazem, Peter, 2012. "A test for complementarities among multiple technologies that avoids the curse of dimensionality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 354-357.
    3. Caselles-Moncho, Antonio, 1986. "An empirical comparison of cross-impact models for forecasting sales," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 295-303.
    4. Bañuls, Victor A. & Turoff, Murray & Hiltz, Starr Roxanne, 2013. "Collaborative scenario modeling in emergency management through cross-impact," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(9), pages 1756-1774.
    5. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel & A. Prinzie, 2011. "Analyzing existing customers’ websites to improve the customer acquisition process as well as the profitability prediction in B-to-B marketing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/733, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    6. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Technology Classification with Latent Semantic Indexing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/814, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    7. Kauffman, Stuart & Lobo, Jose & Macready, William G., 2000. "Optimal search on a technology landscape," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 141-166, October.
    8. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Protecting Research and Technology from Espionage," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/824, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    9. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Improved Multilevel Security with Latent Semantic Indexing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/811, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    10. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2013. "Weak Signal Identification with Semantic Web Mining," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/860, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    11. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel & A. Prinzie & -, 2010. "A compared R&D-based and patent-based cross impact analysis for identifying relationships between technologies," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 10/632, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2013. "Semantic Compared Cross Impact Analysis," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/862, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2013. "Semantic Compared Cross Impact Analysis," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/862, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2013. "Weak Signal Identification with Semantic Web Mining," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/860, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Protecting Research and Technology from Espionage," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/824, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Technology Classification with Latent Semantic Indexing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/814, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    5. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Improved Multilevel Security with Latent Semantic Indexing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/811, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    6. Panula-Ontto, Juha, 2019. "The AXIOM approach for probabilistic and causal modeling with expert elicited inputs," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 292-308.
    7. Panula-Ontto, Juha & Luukkanen, Jyrki & Kaivo-oja, Jari & O'Mahony, Tadhg & Vehmas, Jarmo & Valkealahti, Seppo & Björkqvist, Tomas & Korpela, Timo & Järventausta, Pertti & Majanne, Yrjö & Kojo, Matti , 2018. "Cross-impact analysis of Finnish electricity system with increased renewables: Long-run energy policy challenges in balancing supply and consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 504-513.
    8. Panula-Ontto, J. & Piirainen, K.A., 2018. "EXIT: An alternative approach for structural cross-impact modeling and analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 89-100.
    9. Del Corso, Gianna M. & Romani, Francesco, 2019. "Adaptive nonnegative matrix factorization and measure comparisons for recommender systems," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 354(C), pages 164-179.
    10. P Fogel & C Geissler & P Cotte & G Luta, 2022. "Applying separative non-negative matrix factorization to extra-financial data," Working Papers hal-03689774, HAL.
    11. Xiao-Bai Li & Jialun Qin, 2017. "Anonymizing and Sharing Medical Text Records," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 28(2), pages 332-352, June.
    12. Tamer Khraisha & Keren Arthur, 2018. "Can we have a general theory of financial innovation processes? A conceptual review," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 4(1), pages 1-27, December.
    13. Haegeman, Karel & Marinelli, Elisabetta & Scapolo, Fabiana & Ricci, Andrea & Sokolov, Alexander, 2013. "Quantitative and qualitative approaches in Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): From combination to integration?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 386-397.
    14. Schilling, Melissa A. & Green, Elad, 2011. "Recombinant search and breakthrough idea generation: An analysis of high impact papers in the social sciences," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 1321-1331.
    15. Olsson, Ola, 2001. "Why Does Technology Advance in Cycles?," Working Papers in Economics 38, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    16. Naiyang Guan & Lei Wei & Zhigang Luo & Dacheng Tao, 2013. "Limited-Memory Fast Gradient Descent Method for Graph Regularized Nonnegative Matrix Factorization," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(10), pages 1-10, October.
    17. Spelta, A. & Pecora, N. & Rovira Kaltwasser, P., 2019. "Identifying Systemically Important Banks: A temporal approach for macroprudential policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 197-218.
    18. M. Moghadam & K. Aminian & M. Asghari & M. Parnianpour, 2013. "How well do the muscular synergies extracted via non-negative matrix factorisation explain the variation of torque at shoulder joint?," Computer Methods in Biomechanics and Biomedical Engineering, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 291-301.
    19. Leonardo Boncinelli, 2007. "Choice under Markovian Constraints," Department of Economics University of Siena 516, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    20. Markovsky, Ivan & Niranjan, Mahesan, 2010. "Approximate low-rank factorization with structured factors," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(12), pages 3411-3420, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:13/861. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nathalie Verhaeghe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ferugbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.