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A compared R&D-based and patent-based cross impact analysis for identifying relationships between technologies

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Author Info

  • D. THORLEUCHTER
  • D. VAN DEN POEL

    ()

  • A. PRINZIE
  • -

Abstract

The planning of technological research and development (R&D) is demanding in areas with many relationships between technologies. To support decision makers of a government organization with R&D planning in these areas, a methodology to make the technology impact more transparent is introduced. The method shows current technology impact and impact trends from the R&D of an organization's competitors and compares these to the technology impact and impact trends from the organization's own R&D. This way, relative strength, relative weakness, plus parity of the organization's R&D activities in technology pairs can be identified. A quantitative cross impact analysis (CIA) approach is used to estimate the impact across technologies. Our quantitative CIA approach contrasts to standard qualitative CIA approaches that estimate technology impact by means of literature surveys and expert interviews. In this paper, the impact is computed based on the R&D information regarding the respective organization on one hand, and based on patent data representative regarding R&D information of the organization's competitors on the other hand. As an illustration, the application field 'defence' is used, where many interrelations and interdependencies between defence-based technologies occur. Firstly, an R&D-based and patent-based Compared Cross Impact (CCI) among technologies is computed. Secondly, characteristics of the CCI are identified. Thirdly, the CCI data is presented as a network to show the overall structure and the complex relationships between the technologies. Finally, changes of the CCI are analyzed over time. The results show that the proposed methodology generates useful insights for government organizations to direct technology investments.

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File URL: http://www.feb.ugent.be/nl/Ondz/wp/Papers/wp_10_632.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium with number 10/632.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:10/632

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Related research

Keywords: Compared cross impact; Cross impact analysis; Technological impact analysis; R&D; Patent analysis; Defence Taxonomy; Centroid Vector; Machine Learning; Multi Label Classification;

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References

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  1. Caselles-Moncho, Antonio, 1986. "An empirical comparison of cross-impact models for forecasting sales," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 295-303.
  2. K. Coussement & D. Van Den Poel, 2008. "Integrating the Voice of Customers through Call Center Emails into a Decision Support System for Churn Prediction," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/502, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Improved Multilevel Security with Latent Semantic Indexing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/811, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  2. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2013. "Weak Signal Identification with Semantic Web Mining," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/860, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  3. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Protecting Research and Technology from Espionage," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/824, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  4. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2013. "Semantic Compared Cross Impact Analysis," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/862, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  5. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2013. "Quantitative Cross Impact Analysis with Latent Semantic Indexing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/861, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  6. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel & A. Prinzie, 2011. "Analyzing existing customers’ websites to improve the customer acquisition process as well as the profitability prediction in B-to-B marketing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/733, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  7. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Technology Classification with Latent Semantic Indexing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/814, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

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