A behavioral model of consumption

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A behavioral model of consumption

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GIAMBONI LUIGI
WALDMANN ROBERT

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Robert Waldmann

Abstract

This paper studies whether anomalies in consumption can be explained by a behavioral model in which agents do not have rational expectations and make predictable errors in forecasting income. We use a micro-data set containing subjective expectations about future income. The paper shows that, the null hypotheses of rational expectations is rejected in favor of the behavioral model, as that consumption responds to predictable forecast errors. On average agents who we predict are too pessimistic increase consumption after the predictable positive income shock. On average agents who are too optimistic reduce consumption. (JEL classification: D11, D12, D84)

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Paper provided by Tor Vergata University, CEIS in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 202.

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Date of creation: Apr 2004
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Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceiswp:202

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2005-03-06 (All new papers)
NEP-CBE-2005-03-06 (Cognitive & Behavioural Economics)
NEP-EVO-2005-03-06 (Evolutionary Economics)
NEP-PKE-2005-03-06 (Post Keynesian Economics)

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Lovell, Michael C, 1986. "Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 110-24, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Jappelli, Tullio & Pistaferri, Luigi, 2000. "Using subjective income expectations to test for excess sensitivity of consumption to predicted income growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 337-358, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Luigi Pistaferri & Tullio Jappelli, 1998. "Using Subjective Income Expectations to Test for Excess Sensitivity of Consumption to Predicted Income Growth," CSEF Working Papers 12, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
MaCurdy, Thomas E., 1982. "The use of time series processes to model the error structure of earnings in a longitudinal data analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 83-114, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Other versions:
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," NBER Working Papers 4937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Luigi Pistaferri, 2003. "Anticipated and Unanticipated Wage Changes, Wage Risk, and Intertemporal Labor Supply," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(3), pages 729-728, July. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Pistaferri, Luigi, 2002. "Anticipated and Unanticipated Wage Changes, Wage Risk, and Intertemporal Labour Supply," CEPR Discussion Papers 3628, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Das, Marcel & Donkers, Bas, 1999. "How Certain Are Dutch Households about Future Income? An Empirical Analysis," Review of Income and Wealth, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(3), pages 325-38, September.
Other versions:
- Das, M. & Donkers, B., 1997. "How certain are Dutch households about future income? : an empirical analysis," Discussion Paper 38, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
repec:att:wimass:19895 is not listed on IDEAS
Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1992. "Earnings Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving," CEPR Discussion Papers 699, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Giucca, P. & Jappelli, T. & Terlizzese, D., 1992. "Earning Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving," Papers 161, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1992. "Earnings uncertainty and precautionary saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 307-337, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Luigi Pistaferri, 2001. "Superior Information, Income Shocks, And The Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 465-476, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Luigi Pistaferri, 1998. "Superior Information, Income Shocks and the Permanent Income Hypothesis," CSEF Working Papers 07, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy. [Downloadable!]
Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Hall, Robert E & Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "The Sensitivity of Consumption to Transitory Income: Estimates from Panel Data on Households," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 461-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Robert E. Hall & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1982. "The Sensitivity of Consumption to Transitory Income: Estimates from Panel Data on Households," NBER Working Papers 0505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Pistaferri, Luigi, 2002. "An Empirical Analysis of Earnings and Employment Risk," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 241-53, April.
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