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Stock Price Dynamics: An Empirical Test Of The Chartist-Fundamentalist Hypothesis

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Author Info
Leonardo Becchetti
Maria I. Marika Santoro

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Abstract

Several theoretical papers investigating the effects of financial markets microstructure on asset prices focus on the interaction between a group of more informed (rational) and a group of less informed (noise, liquidity, near rational) traders. In this framework we propose an empirical test of a theoretical hypothesis developed by Sethi (1996) in which fundamentalists trade on deviations between the observed and the “fundamental” price and chartists trade on the basis of their trend expectations. Empirical findings on the dynamics of S&P constituents’ stock prices are broadly consistent with model predictions and highlight the predominant role of chartists’ during the stock market boom of the last part of the 90’s.

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Paper provided by Tor Vergata University, CEIS in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 182.

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Date of creation: Dec 2002
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Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceiswp:182

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  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1991. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Reprints 1512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  2. Sethi, Rajiv, 1996. "Endogenous regime switching in speculative markets," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 99-118, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Goodhart, Charles, 1988. "The Foreign Exchange Market: A Random Walk with a Dragging Anchor," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(220), pages 437-60, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 1998. "Value versus Growth: The International Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1975-1999, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Franke, Reiner & Sethi, Rajiv, 1998. "Cautious trend-seeking and complex asset price dynamics," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 61-79, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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  8. Sanford J. Grossman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," NBER Reprints 0121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  9. Ravn, M.O. & Uhlig, H., 1997. "On adjusting the hp-filter for the frequency of observations," Discussion Paper 50, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The theory and practice of corporate finance: evidence from the field," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 187-243, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Grossman, Sanford J, 1981. "An Introduction to the Theory of Rational Expectations under Asymmetric Information," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 541-59, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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