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Globalizzazione,Rivoluzione Tecnologica E Commercio Internazionale: Le Nuove Sfide

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PAGANETTO LUIGI
BECCHETTI LEONARDO

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Abstract

La rivoluzione tecnologica e l'accentuazione del fenomeno della delocalizzazione produttiva sono due eventi fondamentali che hanno rivoluzionato le economie in questi ultimi decenni. I risultati di questi due eventi sono stati, sino ad ora, una forte crescita di alcune aree in via di sviluppo e la stagnazione di altre. Tali dinamiche sono state accompagnate da un aumento del wage skill differential nei paesi più sviluppati, da una riduzione dello stesso differenziale nei paesi in via di sviluppo più avanzati e da un aumento in quelli meno avanzati.Per comprendere come queste due grandi trasformazioni hanno determinato le evidenze empiriche sopra menzionate la rassegna suggerisce la prospettiva della convergenza condizionata e del ruolo cruciale di capitale umano, qualità delle istituzioni e accesso alla rete nel recupero delle aree più arretrate. In tale prospettiva la globalizzazione presenta dunque due facce della medaglia per i paesi emergenti. Il lato positivo, colto dai paesi con migliore qualità istituzionale, è che la rivoluzione tecnologica rende più facile il catching-up rispetto a quanto accadeva nell'economia tradizionale dove esso richiedeva ingenti investimenti in capitale fisico.Il lato negativo è che, in presenza di un livello troppo basso di capitale umano iniziale e di scarsa qualità delle istituzioni, l'impatto potenzialmente positivo della delocalizzazione produttiva previsto dai modelli tradizionali di commercio internazionale è attenuato da due fenomeni principali: la natura non competitiva del mercato del lavoro dei low skilled nel sud e la tendenza degli high skilled ad agglomerarsi nei paesi più sviluppati. Sulla base di tali considerazioni i suggerimenti di policy per estendere i benefici della globalizzazione e della rivoluzione informatica alle aree che non ne hanno ancora beneficiato sono dunque quelli della promozione della crescita del capitale umano nel Sud assieme ad un forte miglioramento istituzionale in grado di arrestare la fuga di competenze verso ambienti economici più favorevoli.

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Paper provided by Tor Vergata University, CEIS in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 153.

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Date of creation: Dec 2001
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Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceiswp:153

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