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Climate change, uncertainty and adaptation: the case of irrigated agriculture in the Murray–Darling Basin in Australia

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Author Info

  • John Quiggin

    ()
    (Risk & Sustainable Management Group, School of Economics, University of Queensland)

  • David Adamson

    ()
    (Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland)

  • Sarah Chambers

    ()
    (Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland)

  • Peggy Schrobback

    ()
    (Risk & Sustainable Management Group, School of Economics, University of Queensland)

Abstract

Climate change is likely to have substantial effects on irrigated agriculture. Extreme climate events such as droughts are likely to become more common. These patterns are evident in median projections of climate change for the Murray–Darling Basin in Australia. Understanding climate change effects on returns from irrigation involves explicit representation of spatial changes in natural stocks (i.e. water supply) and their temporal variability (i.e. frequency of drought states of nature) and the active management responses to capital stocks represented by mitigation and alternative adaptation strategies by state of nature . A change in the frequency of drought will induce a change in the allocation of land and water between productive activities. In this paper, a simulation model of state-contingent production is used to analyze the effects of climate change adaptation and mitigation. In the absence of mitigation, climate change will have severe adverse effects on irrigated agriculture in the Basin. However, a combination of climate mitigation and adaptation through changes in land and water use will allow the maintenance of agricultural water use and environmental flows.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland in its series Climate Change Working Papers with number WPC10_1.

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Date of creation: Dec 2010
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Handle: RePEc:rsm:climte:c10_1

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Keywords: Irrigation; Uncertainty; Climate Change;

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References

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  1. Adamson, David & Mallawaarachchi, Thilak & Quiggin, John, 2004. "Modelling basin level allocation of water in the Murray Darling Basin in a world of uncertainty," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 149844, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
  2. Alan Randall, 1981. "Property Entitlements And Pricing Policies For A Maturing Water Economy," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 25(3), pages 195-220, December.
  3. Randall, Alan, 1981. "Property Entitlements And Pricing Policies For A Maturing Water Economy," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 25(03), December.
  4. K. D. Cocks, 1968. "Discrete Stochastic Programming," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(1), pages 72-79, September.
  5. David Adamson & Thilak Mallawaarachchi & John Quiggin, 2009. "Declining inflows and more frequent droughts in the Murray-Darling Basin: climate change, impacts and adaptation ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 53(3), pages 345-366, 07.
  6. Colin G. Brown & Ross G. Drynan, 1986. "Plant Location Analysis Using Discrete Stochastic Programming1," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 30(1), pages 1-22, 04.
  7. Kingwell, R. S., 1994. "Risk attitude and dryland farm management," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 191-202.
  8. Brown, Colin G. & Drynan, Ross G., 1986. "Plant Location Analysis Using Discrete Stochastic Programming," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 30(01), April.
  9. Carlo Carraro & Francesco Bosello & Enrica De Cian, 2009. "An Analysis of Adaptation as a Response to Climate Change," Working Papers 2009_26, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  10. Kingwell, Ross S. & Pannell, David J. & Robinson, Stephen D., 1993. "Tactical responses to seasonal conditions in whole-farm planning in Western Australia," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 211-226, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Islam, Nazrul & Xayavong, Vilaphonh & Kingwell, Ross S., 2011. "Broadacre Farm Productivity And Profitability In South Western Australia," 2011 Conference (55th), February 8-11, 2011, Melbourne, Australia 100565, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  2. John Quiggin, 2009. "Agriculture and global climate stabilization: a public good analysis," Climate Change Working Papers WPC09_1, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland.
  3. Sarah Ayeri Ogalleh & Christian R. Vogl & Josef Eitzinger & Michael Hauser, 2012. "Local Perceptions and Responses to Climate Change and Variability: The Case of Laikipia District, Kenya," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(12), pages 3302-3325, December.

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