Fragile States, Commodity Booms And Export Performance: An Analysis Of The Sub-Saharan African Case
AbstractSub-Saharan Africa's export performance over recent decades has typically been por-trayed as poor compared to other regions in developing countries. This paper takes a new look at the record, using data on the volume rather than the value of African ex-ports. When analysed in volume terms a different picture of African export performance emerges. Despite being confronted by sharply declining prices, between 1995-2001 Afri-can exports expanded by an average of 5.9 percent annually. The picture changes quite significantly during the post-2002 commodity price boom period, with increases of 5.2 per cent per annum in average volumes. By using a dynamic panel of 36 Sub-Saharan countries, the aim of this paper is to analyse this apparent paradox, using data available from UNCTAD. Specifically, we investigate the price-elasticity response of African ex-porters in the light of dramatically shifting unit prices. In the context of the EDR project, we also specifically look at the question of whether countries classified as ´fragile states´ have been especially disadvantaged in terms of their export performance.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European University Institute in its series RSCAS Working Papers with number 2010/21.
Date of creation: 29 Jan 2010
Date of revision:
export determinants; Sub-Saharan Africa; export performance; commodity prices;
Other versions of this item:
- Andrew Mold and Annalisa Prizzon, 2010. "Fragile States, Commodity Booms And Export Performance: An Analysis Of The Sub-Saharan African Case," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 21, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2002. "An Empirical Analysis of China's Export Behavior," IMF Working Papers 02/200, International Monetary Fund.
- Lawrence Edwards & Phil Alves, 2006. "South Africa'S Export Performance: Determinants Of Export Supply," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(3), pages 473-500, 09.
- Mamingi, Nlandu, 1997. "The impact of prices and macroeconomic policies on agricultural supply: a synthesis of available results," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 17-34, March.
- Clarke, George R.G., 2005. "Beyond tariffs and quotas : why don't African manufacturers export more?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3617, The World Bank.
- Amelia U. Santos-Paulino, 2000.
"Trade Liberalisation and Export Performance in Selected Developing Countries,"
Studies in Economics
0012, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
- A. U. Santos-Paulino, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Export Performance in Selected Developing Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 140-164.
- Padamja Khandelwal, 2004. "COMESA and SADC: Prospects and Challenges for Regional Trade Integration," IMF Working Papers 04/227, International Monetary Fund.
- Andrew MOLD, 2004. "Fdi And Poverty Reduction: A Critical Reappraisal Of The Arguments," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 20, pages 91-122.
- M�ns S–derbom & Francis Teal, 2003. "Are Manufacturing Exports the Key to Economic Success in Africa?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
- Farhad Noorbakhsh & Alberto Paloni, 1998. "Structural adjustment programmes and export supply response," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 555-573.
- Bloch, Harry & Sapsford, David, 2000. "Whither the Terms of Trade? An Elaboration of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(4), pages 461-81, July.
- W Naudé, 2000. "The Determinants of South African Exports: An Econometric Analysis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(2), pages 103-113, 06.
- Santos-Paulino, Amelia U., 2002.
"The Effects of Trade Liberalization on Imports in Selected Developing Countries,"
Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 959-974, June.
- Amelia U. Santos-Paulino, 2001. "The Effects of Trade Liberalisation on Imports in Selected Developing Countries," Studies in Economics 0110, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
- Oliver Morrissey, 2005. "Imports and Implementation: Neglected Aspects of Trade in the Report of the Commission for Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 1133-1153.
- Augstin Kwasi Fosu, 2003. "Political Instability and Export Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 68-83.
- Coe, David T & Hoffmaister, Alexander W, 1999.
"North-South Trade: Is Africa Unusual?,"
Journal of African Economies,
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 8(2), pages 228-56, July.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995.
"Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
- M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- World Bank, 2005. "Economic Growth in the 1990s : Learning from a Decade of Reform," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7370, March.
- Irfan ul HAQUE, 2004. "Commodities Under Neoliberalism: The Case Of Cocoa," G-24 Discussion Papers 25, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991.
"Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Amelia Santos-Paulino & A.P. Thirlwall, 2004. "Trade Liberalisation And Economic Performance In Developing Countries - Introduction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages F1-F3, 02.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RSCAS web unit).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.