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The Effect of NAFTA on Energy and Environmental Efficiency in Mexico

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  • David I. Stern

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY 12180-3590, USA)

Abstract

Prior to Mexico's entry to NAFTA predictions of the consequent impact on the environment in that country ranged from the dire to the very optimistic. This paper investigates NAFTA's outcomes in terms of energy use and the emission of atmospheric pollutants. Specifically, has entry into NAFTA led to a convergence or divergence in indicators of emissions, environmental efficiency, and emissions specific technology in Mexico, the United States, and Canada? Four emissions variables are considered: energy, carbon, sulfur, and NOx. Three different indicators of emissions and environmental efficiency are computed and tested for both convergence and the presence of a structural break associated with the introduction of NAFTA: energy or emissions per capita; energy or emissions intensity of GDP; and the state of technology in sulfur abatement and energy efficiency derived from a production frontier model estimated using the Kalman filter. Three convergence tests test for beta-convergence, sigma-convergence, and cointegration of the trends and the effect of NAFTA on these measures. I also test whether NAFTA induced a structural break in the trend of the various indicators. The results show that the extreme predictions of the outcomes of NAFTA have not materialized. Rather, trends that were already present before the introduction of NAFTA continue and in some cases improve post-NAFTA, but not yet in a dramatic way. There is strong evidence of convergence for all four intensity indicators across the three countries towards a lower intensity level. Though intensity is rising initially in some cases in Mexico, it eventually begins to fall post-NAFTA. Per capita measures for the two criteria pollutants also show convergence, but this is not the case for energy and carbon and the latter variables also drift moderately upwards. The state of technology in energy efficiency and sulfur abatement is improving in all countries, though there is little if any sign of convergence and NAFTA has no effect on the rate of technology diffusion. However, total energy use and carbon emissions increase both pre- and post- NAFTA and total NOx emissions increase in Mexico. Only total sulfur emissions are stable and falling in all three NAFTA partners.

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Paper provided by Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics in its series Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics with number 0511.

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Date of creation: Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:rpi:rpiwpe:0511

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. William A. Brock & M. Scott Taylor, 2004. "The Green Solow Model," NBER Working Papers 10557, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Stern, David I., 2009. "Between Estimates of the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Research Reports 94883, Australian National University, Environmental Economics Research Hub.
  3. repec:mop:credwp:08.12.79 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2010. "On the non-convergence of energy intensities: Evidence from a pair-wise econometric approach," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6801, Paris Dauphine University.
  5. Richard T. Carson, 2010. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve: Seeking Empirical Regularity and Theoretical Structure," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 4(1), pages 3-23, Winter.
  6. Chintrakarn, Pandej & Millimet, Daniel, 2006. "Subnational Trade Flows and State-Level Energy Intensity," Departmental Working Papers 0601, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
  7. Arbex, Marcelo & Perobelli, Fernando S., 2010. "Solow meets Leontief: Economic growth and energy consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 43-53, January.
  8. Carson, Richard T, 2009. "Searching for Empirical Regularity and Theoretical Structure: The Environmental Kuznets Curve," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4m6263c2, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  9. Stern, David I., 2010. "Between estimates of the emissions-income elasticity," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(11), pages 2173-2182, September.

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