Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

A Three-Layer Atmosphere-Ocean Time Series Model of Global Climate Change

Contents:

Author Info

  • David I. Stern

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY 12180-3590, USA)

Abstract

Time series models of global climate change have tended to estimate a low climate sensitivity and a fast adjustment rate to equilibrium. These results appear to be biased by omission of a key variable - heat stored in the ocean. I develop a time series model of the ocean atmosphere climate system where atmospheric temperature moves towards a long-run equilibrium with both radiative forcing and ocean heat content, which is distributed between upper ocean and deep ocean components. The time series model utilizes the notion of multicointegration to impose energy balance relations on an autoregressive model. As there are only around fifty years of observations on ocean heat content I use the Kalman filter to estimate heat content as a latent state variable constrained by the available observations. The estimate of the equilibrium climate sensitivity is 8.4K with a confidence interval of 5.0 to 11.7K. Temperature takes centuries to adjust to an increase in radiative forcing. The transient climate sensitivity at the point of carbon dioxide doubling is 1.7K.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.economics.rpi.edu/workingpapers/rpi0510.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics in its series Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics with number 0510.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rpi:rpiwpe:0510

Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://www.economics.rpi.edu/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Hui Liu & Gabriel Rodriguez, 2003. "Human Activities and Global Warming: A Cointegration Analysis," Working Papers 0307E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
  2. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March.
  3. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  4. Engsted, Tom & Haldrup, Niels, 1999. " Multicointegration in Stock-Flow Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(2), pages 237-54, May.
  5. David I. Stern, 2004. "A Multicointegration Model of Global Climate Change," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0406, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
  6. Granger, C W J & Lee, T H, 1989. "Investigation of Production, Sales and Inventory Relationships Using Multicointegration and Non-symmetric Error Correction Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages S145-59, Supplemen.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Schmith, Johansen, and Thejll on Atmospheric Temperature and Sea Level Rise
    by David Stern in Stochastic Trend on 2011-11-14 08:48:00
  2. Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations During Ancient Greenhouse Climates were Similar to those Predicted for A.D. 2100
    by David Stern in Stochastic Trend on 2011-02-12 08:09:00
  3. Climate Sensitivity and Expected Temperature Increase
    by David Stern in Stochastic Trend on 2009-10-19 22:51:00
  4. Omitted Variables Bias in Estimating the Rate of Global Warming
    by David Stern in Stochastic Trend on 2009-10-11 02:07:00

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rpi:rpiwpe:0510. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John Heim) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask John Heim to update the entry or send us the correct address.

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.