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World Trade as the Adjustment Mechanism of Agriculture to Climate Change

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  • Roxana Julia

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute,1403 Park Boulevard, Troy, NY, 12180,USA)

  • Faye Duchin

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy NY 12180-3590, USA)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the role of trade as mechanism of economic adjustment to the impacts of climate change on agriculture. The study uses a model of the world economy able to reflect changes in comparative advantage; the model is used to test the hypotheses that trade can assure that, first, satisfying global agricultural demand will not be jeopardized, and, second, general access to food will not decrease. The hypotheses are tested for three alternative scenarios of climate change; under each scenario, regions adjust to the climatic assumptions by changing the land areas devoted to agriculture and the mix of agricultural goods produced, two of the major mechanisms of agricultural adaptation. We find that trade makes it possible to satisfy the world demand for agricultural goods under the changed physical conditions. However, access to food decreases in some regions of the world. Other patterns also emerge that indicate areas of concern in relying on trade as a mechanism for the adjustment of agriculture to likely future changes in climate.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics in its series Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics with number 0507.

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Date of creation: May 2005
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Handle: RePEc:rpi:rpiwpe:0507

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  1. Faye Duchin, 2005. "A world trade model based on comparative advantage with m regions, n goods, and k factors," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 141-162.
  2. Arndt, Channing & Robinson, Sherman & Tarp, Finn, 1999. "Parameter estimation for a computable general equilibrium model: a maximum entropy approach," TMD discussion papers 40, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos E. & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1995. "World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations," Agricultural Economics Reports 33933, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  4. Duchin, Faye & Lange, Glenn-Marie, 1995. "The choice of technology and associated changes in prices in the U.S. economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 335-357, August.
  5. Hertel, Thomas W. & Timothy O. Randhir, 1999. "Trade Liberalization as a Vehicle for Adapting to Global Warming," GTAP Working Papers 398, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
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Cited by:
  1. Kurt Kratena, 2007. "From Ecological Footprint to Ecological Rent: An Economic Indicator for Resource Constraints," WIFO Working Papers 292, WIFO.
  2. Kingwell, Ross S., 2006. "Climate change in Australia: agricultural impacts and adaptation," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Melbourne School of Land and Environment, vol. 14.
  3. Schenker, Oliver & Stephan, Gunter, 2012. "Terms-of-trade and the funding of adaptation to climate change and variability: An empirical analysis," ZEW Discussion Papers 12-056, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  4. Oliver Schenker & Gunter Stephan, 2012. "International Trade and the Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability," Diskussionsschriften dp1201, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
  5. Faye Duchin, 2007. "Energy and the Global Economy," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0704, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
  6. Erling Holden & Geoffrey Gilpin, 2013. "Biofuels and Sustainable Transport: A Conceptual Discussion," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(7), pages 3129-3149, July.
  7. Leo Dobes, 2012. "Adaptation to Climate Change: Formulating Policy under Uncertainty," CCEP Working Papers 1201, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  8. Lining He & Faye Duchin, 2009. "Regional Development In China: Interregional Transportation Infrastructure And Regional Comparative Advantage," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 3-22.
  9. Roxana Juliá & Faye Duchin, 2013. "Land Use Change and Global Adaptations to Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(12), pages 5442-5459, December.
  10. Kingwell, Ross S., 2006. "Is Hanrahan sort of right? Will climate change ruin us all?," 2006 Conference (50th), February 8-10, 2006, Sydney, Australia 137961, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  11. David I. Stern & Frank Jotzo & Leo Dobes, 2013. "The Economics of Global Climate Change: A Historical Literature Review," CCEP Working Papers 1307, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  12. Schenker, Oliver, 2010. "Transporting goods and damages. The role of trade on the distribution of climate change costs," MPRA Paper 25350, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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