This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

East-West Migration in Europe, 2004 - 2015

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Jana Bruder () (University of Rostock)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

One of the questions in the context of EU-Enlargement is that of East-West Migration. How many people will leave the accession candidate countries and how will this affect the Western European countries? This paper presents a forecast of migration between the accession countries and the EU 15 from 2004 to 2015. The forecast is based on the analysis of migration experiences from the accession of Spain, Greece and Portugal. The results of a multiple regression model show that network effects play an important role. Economic factors have a significant impact only on migration into the European countries but not on emigration. The estimated coefficients are used to forecast future migration. Between 2004 and 2015 about 3.0 million people are expected to migrate temporarily into Western European countries. Permanent migration will be about 1.7 million people. Regarding distribution Germany and Austria are mostly affected by immigration. In terms of emigration quotas Poland will be by far the main source of migrants.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.wiwi.uni-rostock.de/fileadmin/Institute/VWL/VWL-Institut/RePEc/pdf/wp040thuenen.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, 2003
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Rostock, Institute of Economics, Germany in its series Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory with number 40.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ros:wpaper:40

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Ulmenstr. 69, 18057 Rostock
Phone: (0381)498-4310
Fax: (0381)498-4310
Web page: http://www.wiwi.uni-rostock.de/vwl/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Doris Neuberger).

Related research
Keywords: EU-Enlargement; Migration;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation
F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Brosnan, Peter & Poot, Jacques, 1987. "Modelling the Determinants of Trans-Tasman Migration after World War II," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 63(183), pages 313-29, December.
  2. Michael Fertig, 2001. "The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 707-720. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2000. "Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams," IZA Discussion Papers 183, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  4. Thomas Bauer & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 1999. "Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Research Reports 3, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Thierry Warin & Andrew Blakely, 2009. "Choice or Mimetism in the Decision to Migrate? A European Illustration," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-38, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  2. Baas, Timo & Brücker, Herbert, 2008. "Macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion : a CGE simulation for Germany and the UK," IAB Discussion Paper 200803, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]. [Downloadable!]
  3. Anzelika Zaiceva, 2004. "Implications of EU Accession for International Migration: An Assessment of Potential Migration Pressure," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  4. António B. Moniz, 2008. "The transformation of work? A quantitative evaluation of changes in work in Portugal," IET Working Papers Series 07/2008, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET-Research Center on Enterprise and Work Innovation, Faculty of Science and Technology. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? The RePEc project started in 1997. Its precursor, NetEc, dates back to 1993.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-14.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.