On the Fundamentals of Self-Fulfilling Prophecies
AbstractThis paper proposes a theory of twin banking-currency crisis in which both fundamentals and self-fulfilling beliefs play crucial roles. Fundamentals determine whether crises will occur. Self-fulfilling beliefs determine when they occur. The fundamental that causes 'twin crises' is government guarantees to domestic banks' foreign creditors. When these guarantees are in place twin crises inevitably occur, but their timing is a multiple-equilibrium phenomenon that depends on agents' beliefs. So while self-fulfilling beliefs have an important role to play, twin crises do not happen just anywhere. They happen in countries where there are fundamental problems- problems such as guarantees to the financial sector.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER) in its series RCER Working Papers with number 468.
Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2000
Date of revision:
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Postal: University of Rochester, Center for Economic Research, Department of Economics, Harkness 231 Rochester, New York 14627 U.S.A.
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
- F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2000-05-01 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2000-05-01 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-IFN-2000-05-01 (International Finance)
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