IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rjr/wpiecf/161001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Real GDP Rate in European Union. A Panel Data Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mihaela Simionescu

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

The main aim of this article is to explain the evolution of real GDP rate in European Union (EU-28) over the period 2002-2013 using panel data sets. Several dynamic models (6 models) explained the real GDP growth, an increase in the real GDP rate in the previous period with 1% generating an increase in the real GDP rate in the current period with a value between 0.3% and 0.4%. A fixed effects model with individual effects and effects in time explained the real GDP growth using as explanatory variable the employment. Moreover, a panel data model is estimated, but the assumptions related to errors are not checked. Simulations are made for 2014 and 2015 using the dynamic model and the fixed effects model, the latter anticipating higher GDP rate than most of the dynamic models.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihaela Simionescu, 2016. "The Real GDP Rate in European Union. A Panel Data Approach," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 161001, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:wpiecf:161001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/RePEc/WorkingPapers/wpiecf161001.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arvanitidis, Paschalis & Petrakos, George & Pavleas, Sotiris, 2007. "Determinants of economic growth: the experts’ view," Papers DYNREG20, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Marija Trpkova & Biljana Tashevska, 2011. "Determinants Of Economic Growth In South - East Europe: A Panel Data Approach," Perspectives of Innovation in Economics and Business (PIEB), Prague Development Center, vol. 7(1), pages 12-15, January.
    3. Menbere T. Workie, 2005. "Determinants of Growth and Convergence in Transitive Economies in the 1990s: Empirical Evidence from a Panel Data," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2005(3), pages 239-251.
    4. Ms. Hélène Poirson & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo, 2004. "What Are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth?," IMF Working Papers 2004/015, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Nihat Taș & Ali Hepșen & Emrah Önder, 2013. "Analyzing Macroeconomic Indicators of Economic Growth using Panel Data," Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 2(3), pages 1-4.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Harkat, Tahar, 2019. "The Impact of Natural Gas Consumption on Industry Value Added in the Mediterranean Region," MPRA Paper 92492, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kapingura Forget Mingiri & S.I Ikhide & A Tsegaye, 2016. "The Relationship between External Financial Flows and Economic Growth in the Southern African Development Community (SADC): The Role of Institutions," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 8(1), pages 87-103.
    2. Simionescu Mihaela, 2018. "What Drives Economic Growth in Some CEE Countries?," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 28(1), pages 46-56, March.
    3. Arsène Aurelien NJAMEN KENGDO & Luc NEMBOT NDEFFO & Désiré AVOM, 2020. "The Effect of Foreign Debt on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Sub-Regions," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 1, pages 109-114.
    4. Nelson Jorge Ribeiro Duarte & Francisco José Lopes de Sousa Diniz, 2011. "The Role Of Firms And Entrepreneurship On Local Development," Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Romanian Regional Science Association, vol. 5(1), pages 54-69, JUNE.
    5. Olugbenga Onafowora & Oluwole Owoye, 2019. "Impact of external debt shocks on economic growth in Nigeria: a SVAR analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 157-179, May.
    6. Haytham Y.M. Ewaida, 2017. "The Impact of Sovereign Debt on Growth: An Empirical Study on GIIPS versus JUUSD Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2A), pages 607-633.
    7. Asit Mohanty & Suresh Kumar Patra & Satyendra Kumar & Avipsa Mohanty, 2016. "An Empirical Analysis of Effect of Public Debt on Economic Growth in India in the Post-Reform Era," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(11), pages 692-705, November.
    8. Serhan ÇIFTÇIOĞLU & Amin SOKHANVAR, 2018. "External Debt- Economic Growth Nexus in Selected CEE Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 85-100, December.
    9. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal & El Aynaoui, Karim, 2008. "Roads out of poverty? Assessing the links between aid, public investment, growth, and poverty reduction," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 277-295, June.
    10. Ikonen, Pasi, 2010. "Effect of finance on growth through more efficient utilization of technological innovations," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2010, Bank of Finland.
    11. Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2008. "External debt and economic reform: does a pain reliever delay the necessary treatment?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 187-199.
    12. Naeem AKRAM*, 2017. "Role of Public Debt in Economic Growth of Sri Lanka: An ARDL Approach," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 27(2), pages 189-212.
    13. Mundaca, Gabriela, 2017. "Energy subsidies, public investment and endogenous growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 693-709.
    14. Imbs, Jean & Rancière, Romain, 2005. "The Overhang Hangover," CEPR Discussion Papers 5210, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Sanford, Jonathan E., 2004. "IDA Grants and HIPC Debt Cancellation: Their Effectiveness and Impact on IDA Resources," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1579-1607, September.
    16. Mr. Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2007. "External Debt and Economic Reform: Does a Pain Reliever Delay the Necessary Treatment?," IMF Working Papers 2007/050, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Rajbhushan J NAYAK & Vishwanath PANDIT & Gopakumar K. U, 2020. "Structural modeling of fiscal structure for policy analysis: A case study of India," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(624), A), pages 139-160, Autumn.
    18. Drine, Imed & Nabi, M. Sami, 2010. "Public external debt, informality and production efficiency in developing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 487-495, March.
    19. Forson, Joseph Ato & Janrattanagul, Jakkaphong & Carsamer, Emmanuel Carsamer, 2013. "Culture Matters: A Test of Rationality on Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 56825, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Qureshi, Irfan & Liaqat, Zara, 2020. "The long-term consequences of external debt: Revisiting the evidence and inspecting the mechanism using panel VARs," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP rate; dynamic model; fixed effects model; employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:wpiecf:161001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.