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Explaining House Price Fluctuations

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Author Info
Hott, Christian () (Swiss National Bank)
Abstract

A comparison of fundamental house prices with actual prices indicates that house prices fluctuate more than fundamentally justified. This fact is very hard to explain with standard rational agent models. This paper develops a housing market model that allows to examine the price effects of various kinds of agents’ expectations. In this framework I we show that the consideration of behavioural aspects like herding behaviour, speculation and momentum trading can help to explain actual house price fluctuations. Following the different approaches, agents overreact to fundamentals and are influenced by past price movements and returns.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Swiss National Bank in its series Working Papers with number 2009-5.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:snbwpa:2009_005

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Related research
Keywords: House Prices; Bubbles; Investor Behaviour;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
R21 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
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  15. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  20. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2008. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 135-180, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Avery, Christopher & Zemsky, Peter, 1998. "Multidimensional Uncertainty and Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 724-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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