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Golden years? The impacts of New Zealand’s ageing on wages, interest rates, wealth and macroeconomy

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  • Lees, Kirdan

    (New Zealand Institute of Economic Research)

Abstract

New Zealand is ageing. The number of old people will increase three-fold and will soon comprise a very large segment of society. Ageing will shrink the labour supply relative to the size of the population and the existing supply of capital. That has implications for wages and interest rates. Increased longevity should also affect savings decisions and labour force participation. In this paper we model these changes to put some numbers on their impact. While the population is ageing gradually, the impact on the mix of labour and capital that fuels the economy will be profound.

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File URL: http://nzier.org.nz/publication/golden-years-the-impacts-of-new-zealands-ageing-on-wages-interest-rates-wealth-and-macroeconomy-nzier-working-paper-20131
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by New Zealand Institute of Economic Research in its series NZIER Working Paper with number 2013/1.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:nzierw:2013_001

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Web page: http://www.nzier.org.nz/
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Keywords: ageing; New Zealand; demographics; labour force participation;

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  1. Creedy, John & Guest, Ross, 2008. "Population ageing and intertemporal consumption: Representative agent versus social planner," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 485-498, May.
  2. Barbara Hanel & Regina Riphahn, 2006. "Financial Incentives and the Timing of Retirement: Evidence from Switzerland," Working Papers 009, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
  3. Gang Liu, 2011. "Measuring the Stock of Human Capital for Comparative Analysis: An Application of the Lifetime Income Approach to Selected Countries," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2011/6, OECD Publishing.
  4. Mariano Kulish & Kathryn Smith & Christopher Kent, 2006. "Ageing, Retirement and Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2006-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  5. Lixin Cai & Guyonne Kalb, 2006. "Health status and labour force participation: evidence from Australia," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 241-261.
  6. Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Frédéric Gonand & Pablo Antolín & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2005. "The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 420, OECD Publishing.
  7. Emma Gorman & Grant M Scobie & Andy Towers, 2012. "Health and Retirement of Older New Zealanders," Treasury Working Paper Series 12/02, New Zealand Treasury.
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