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Time Series Analysis, Cointegration, and Applications

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Author Info

  • Granger, Clive W. J.

    (University of California, San Diego)

Abstract

The two prize winners in Economics this year would describe themselves as "Econometricians," so I thought that I should start by explaining that term. One can begin with the ancient subject of Mathematics which is largely concerned with the discovery of relationships between deterministic variables using a rigorous argument. (A deterministic variable is one whose value is known with certainty.) However, by the middle of the last millennium it became clear that some objects were not deterministic, they had to be described with the use of probabilities, so that Mathematics grew a substantial sub-field known as "Statistics." This later became involved with the analysis of data and a number of methods have been developed for data having what may be called "standard properties."

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File URL: http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2003/granger-lecture.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Nobel Prize Committee in its series Nobel Prize in Economics documents with number 2003-7.

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Length: 7 pages
Date of creation: 08 Dec 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:nobelp:2003_007

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Web page: http://www.nobelprize.org

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Keywords: time series; cointegration;

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References

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  1. Andersen,Lykke E. & Granger,Clive W. J. & Reis,Eustaquio J. & Weinhold,Diana & Wunder,Sven, 2002. "The Dynamics of Deforestation and Economic Growth in the Brazilian Amazon," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521811972, April.
  2. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Muyambiri, Brian & Chiwira, Oscar & Enowbi Batuo, Michael & Chiranga, Ngonidzashe, 2010. "The Causal Relationship between Private and Public Investment in Zimbabwe," MPRA Paper 26671, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Hamzah, Siti Nur Zahara & Lau, Evan, 2013. "The Role of Social Factors in Explaining Crime," MPRA Paper 43518, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Masih, A. Mansur M. & De Mello, Lurion, 2011. "Does the ‘Environmental Kuznets Curve’ Exist? An Application of Long-run Structural Modelling to Saudi Arabia - La Curva di Kuznets esiste? Un’applicazione LRSM al caso dell’Arabia Saudita," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 64(2), pages 211-235.
  4. Bevilacqua, Franco, 2006. "Random walks and cointegration relationships in international parity conditions between Germany and USA for the post Bretton-Woods period," MERIT Working Papers 012, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  5. Allen, P. Geoffrey & Morzuch, Bernard J., 2006. "Twenty-five years of progress, problems, and conflicting evidence in econometric forecasting. What about the next 25 years?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 475-492.
  6. Bevilacqua, Franco, 2006. "Random walks and cointegration relationships in international parity conditions between Germany and USA for the Bretton-Woods period," MERIT Working Papers 016, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  7. José R. Gamarra, 2006. "¿Cómo se comportan las tasas de desempleo en siete ciudades colombianas?," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  8. Emanuele Felice & Josep Pujol Andreu, 2013. "GDP and life expectancy in Italy and Spain over the long-run (1861-2008): insights from a time-series approach," UHE Working papers 2013_06, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Departament d'Economia i Història Econòmica, Unitat d'Història Econòmica.

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