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What if Energy Time Series are not Independent? Implications for Energy-GDP Causality Analysis

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  • Bruns, Stephan B.

    ()
    (Max Planck Institute of Economics)

  • Gross, Christian

    ()
    (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))

Abstract

Time series of electricity, petroleum products, and renewables are found to be highly correlated with total energy consumption. Applying this insight to the huge literature on energy-GDP causality explains that the results of energy-GDP causality tests frequently coincide with the results of energy type-GDP tests. Using the test by Toda-Yamamoto in combination with a cointegration-based testing approach, we detect such cases of concordance for 92 per cent of the countries in our sample of 65 countries. As a consequence, it is difficult to draw specific economic conclusions regarding single types of energy from bivariate causality analysis.

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Paper provided by E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN) in its series FCN Working Papers with number 10/2013.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 26 Sep 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2013_010

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Keywords: Energy; GDP; Granger causality; Correlation; Electricity; Petroleum products; Renewables; Toda-Yamamoto; Johansen-Juselius;

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Cited by:
  1. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Optimal Power Generation Investment: Impact of Technology Choices and Existing Portfolios for Deploying Low-Carbon Coal Technologies," FCN Working Papers 12/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  2. Michelsen , Carl Christian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Switching from Fossil Fuel to Renewables in Residential Heating Systems: An Empirical Study of Homeowners’ Decisions in Germany," FCN Working Papers 14/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  3. Hackbarth, André & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Willingness-to-Pay for Alternative Fuel Vehicle Characteristics: A Stated Choice Study for Germany," FCN Working Papers 20/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  4. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Challenges in the Evaluation of Ultra-Long-Lived Projects: Risk Premia for Projects with Eternal Returns or Costs," FCN Working Papers 13/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  5. Paresh Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2014. "Applied Econometrics and a Decade of Energy Economics Research," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 21-14, Monash University, Department of Economics.

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