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Cost-Effectiveness of Lignocellulose Biorefineries and their Impact on the Deciduous Wood Markets in Germany

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Author Info

  • Sorda, Giovanni

    ()
    (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))

  • Madlener, Reinhard

    ()
    (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))

Abstract

Biorefineries, especially if based on woody biomass, may cause significant changes to the forest and wood-based industry. The resulting changes may, in turn, affect the economic feasibility of lignocellulosic biofuels production. In this article, we introduce a spatial partial equilibrium model of the forest and wood processing industries in Germany. The wood market model is linked to the Reaction Network Flux Analysis (RNFA), a model for the systematic selection of reaction pathways in the preliminary evaluation of the mass balance of innovative biofuel components. In doing so, we can simulate the impact of wood-based biorefineries on their feedstock markets and also assess the economic feasibility of the proposed production process. In a case study based on the transformation of beech wood to methyltetrahydrofuran (MTHF), a potential biofuel component currently under development, we show how the net present value of lignocellulosic biorefineries of various sizes is completely reversed once the wood market’s response to the entry of a new high-volume consumer is taken into account.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN) in its series FCN Working Papers with number 8/2012.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2012_008

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Keywords: Biorefinery; process design; spatial partial equilibrium model; German wood market;

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References

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  29. Mazur, Christoph & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Impact of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles and Charging Regimes on Power Generation Costs and Emissions in Germany," FCN Working Papers 20/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  30. Lang, Joachim & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Relevance of Risk Capital and Margining for the Valuation of Power Plants: Cash Requirements for Credit Risk Mitigation," FCN Working Papers 1/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
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  33. Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Investment in New Power Generation under Uncertainty: Benefits of CHP vs Condensing Plants in a Copula-Based Analysis," FCN Working Papers 12/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
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  36. Bernstein, Ronald & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Short- and Long-Run Electricity Demand Elasticities at the Subsectoral Level: A Cointegration Analysis for German Manufacturing Industries," FCN Working Papers 19/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  37. Ghosh, Gaurav & Shortle, James, 2009. "Water Quality Trading when Nonpoint Pollution Loads are Stochastic," FCN Working Papers 10/2009, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
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  41. Gampert, Markus & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Pan-European Management of Electricity Portfolios: Risks and Opportunities of Contract Bundling," FCN Working Papers 9/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  42. Madlener, Reinhard & Sicking, Stephan, 2011. "Assessing the Economic Potential of Microdrilling in Geothermal Exploration," FCN Working Papers 7/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
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  44. Tomm, Viktor & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Appliance Endowment and User Behaviour by Age Group: Insights from a Swiss Micro-Survey on Residential Electricity Demand," FCN Working Papers 25/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
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  46. Erber, Georg & Madlener, Reinhard, 2008. "Impact of ICT and Human Skills on the European Financial Intermediation Sector," FCN Working Papers 5/2008, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  47. Omann, Ines & Kowalski, Katharina & Bohunovsky, Lisa & Madlener, Reinhard & Stagl, Sigrid, 2008. "The Influence of Social Preferences on Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Energy Scenarios," FCN Working Papers 3/2008, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  48. Michelsen, Carl Christian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Integrated Theoretical Framework for a Homeowner's Decision in Favor of an Innovative Residential Heating System," FCN Working Papers 2/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  49. Stocker, Andrea & Großmann, Anett & Madlener, Reinhard & Wolter, Marc Ingo, 2011. "Sustainable energy development in Austria until 2020: Insights from applying the integrated model "e3.at"," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6082-6099, October.
  50. Madlener, Reinhard & Glensk, Barbara, 2010. "Portfolio Impact of New Power Generation Investments of E.ON in the UK, Sweden and Germany," FCN Working Papers 17/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  51. Rosen, Christiane & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Auction Design for Local Reserve Energy Markets," FCN Working Papers 7/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised Mar 2013.
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  53. Kraas, Birk & Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion & Pulvermüller, Benedikt & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Economic Assessment of a Concentrating Solar Power Forecasting System for Participation in the Spanish Electricity Market," FCN Working Papers 12/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  54. Bernstein, Ronald & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Residential Natural Gas Demand Elasticities in OECD Countries: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," FCN Working Papers 15/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
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  57. Madlener, Reinhard & Wenk, Christioph, 2008. "Efficient Investment Portfolios for the Swiss Electricity Supply Sector," FCN Working Papers 2/2008, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  58. Holtermann, Timm & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Assessment of the technological development and economic potential of photobioreactors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(5), pages 1906-1919, May.
  59. Glensk, Barbara & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Fuzzy Portfolio Optimization for Power Generation Assets," FCN Working Papers 10/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  60. Uwe A. Schneider & Juraj Balkovic & Stephane de Cara & Oskar Franklin & Steffen Fritz & Petr Havlik & Ingo Huck & Kerstin Jantke & A. Maarit I. Kallio & Florian Klaxner & Alexander Moiseyev & Michael , 2008. "The European Forest and Agriculture Optimisation Model -- EUFASOM," Working Papers FNU-156, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2008.
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  62. Maung, Thein A. & Gustafson, Cole R., 2010. "The Economic Feasibility of Sugarbeet Biofuel Production in Central North Dakota," Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report 95745, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
  63. Bernstein, Ronald & Madlener, Reinhard, 2008. "The Impact of Disaggregated ICT Capital on Electricity Intensity of Production: Econometric Analysis of Major European Industries," FCN Working Papers 4/2008, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  64. Juckenack, Sören & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Optimal Time to Start Serial Production: The Case of the Direct Drive Wind Turbine of Siemens Wind Power A/S," FCN Working Papers 6/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  65. Lang, Joachim & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Portfolio Optimization for Power Plants: The Impact of Credit Risk Mitigation and Margining," FCN Working Papers 11/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  66. He, Jie & Zhang, Wennan, 2011. "Techno-economic evaluation of thermo-chemical biomass-to-ethanol," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(4), pages 1224-1232, April.
  67. Glensk, Barbara & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Portfolio Selection Methods and their Empirical Applicability to Real Assets in Energy Markets," FCN Working Papers 11/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  68. Madlener, Reinhard & Mathar, Tobias, 2009. "Development Trends and Economics of Concentrating Solar Power Generation Technologies: A Comparative Analysis," FCN Working Papers 1/2009, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised Sep 2010.
  69. Hinrichs, Hauke & Madlener, Reinhard & Pearson, Peter, 2010. "Liberalisation of Germany’s Electricity System and the Ways Forward of the Unbundling Process: A Historical Perspective and an Outlook," FCN Working Papers 26/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  70. Ghosh, Gaurav & Carriazo, Fernando, 2009. "A Comparison of Three Methods of Estimation in the Context of Spatial Modeling," FCN Working Papers 9/2009, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  71. Ghosh, Gaurav & Shortle, James, 2012. "Managing Pollution Risk through Emissions Trading," FCN Working Papers 1/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  72. Madlener, Reinhard & Glensk, Barbara & Weber, Veronika, 2011. "Fuzzy Portfolio Optimization of Onshore Wind Power Plants," FCN Working Papers 10/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
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Cited by:
  1. Hackbarth, André & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Willingness-to-Pay for Alternative Fuel Vehicle Characteristics: A Stated Choice Study for Germany," FCN Working Papers 20/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  2. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Optimal Power Generation Investment: Impact of Technology Choices and Existing Portfolios for Deploying Low-Carbon Coal Technologies," FCN Working Papers 12/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  3. Michelsen , Carl Christian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Switching from Fossil Fuel to Renewables in Residential Heating Systems: An Empirical Study of Homeowners’ Decisions in Germany," FCN Working Papers 14/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  4. Bruns, Stephan B. & Gross, Christian, 2013. "What if energy time series are not independent? Implications for energy-GDP causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 753-759.
  5. Dergiades, Theologos & Madlener, Reinhard & Christofidou, Georgia, 2012. "The Nexus between Natural Gas Spot and Futures Prices at NYMEX: Do Weather Shocks and Non-Linear Causality in Low Frequencies Matter?," FCN Working Papers 17/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised Sep 2013.
  6. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Challenges in the Evaluation of Ultra-Long-Lived Projects: Risk Premia for Projects with Eternal Returns or Costs," FCN Working Papers 13/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  7. Sorda, Giovanni & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Cost-Effectiveness of Lignocellulose Biorefineries and their Impact on the Deciduous Wood Markets in Germany," FCN Working Papers 8/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  8. Harmsen - van Hout, Marjolein & Ghosh, Gaurav & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "An Evaluation of Attribute Anchoring Bias in a Choice Experimental Setting," FCN Working Papers 6/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  9. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Assessment of Clean-Coal Strategies: The Questionable Merits of Carbon Capture-Readiness," FCN Working Papers 18/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  10. Palmer, Johannes & Sorda, Giovanni & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Modeling the Diffusion of Residential Photovoltaic Systems in Italy: An Agent-based Simulation," FCN Working Papers 9/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  11. Harmsen - van Hout, Marjolein & Ghosh, Gaurav & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "The Impact of Green Framing on Consumers’ Valuations of Energy-Saving Measures," FCN Working Papers 7/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).

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