Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Valuation of CCS-Ready Coal-Fired Power Plants: A Multi-Dimensional Real Options Approach

Contents:

Author Info

  • Rohlfs, Wilko

    () (Chair of Heat and Mass Transfer, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, RWTH Aachen University)

  • Madlener, Reinhard

    () (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a multi-factor real options model for a two-stage investment problem where a coal-fired power plant is later retrofitted with carbon capture and storage (CCS). A capture-ready power plant with lower retrofit costs is compared with a conventional one and higher CCS retrofit costs. The stochastic variables considered are the price of electricity, the price of CO2 permits, capturing, transporting and storing (CTS) costs and CCS retrofit investment costs. Fuel costs are disregarded due to the constant boiler size in case of a retrofit, resulting in constant fuel consumption but lower electricity output of the CCS plant. Two retrofit options that reduce the power plant’s net efficiency from 46% to 30% and 35%, respectively, and an integrated CCS power plant with an efficiency of 38.5% are investigated. In a numerical simulation with realistic parameterization, we find a low probability for a retrofit even after fifteen to twenty years, caused by the high uncertainty and the adverse impact of the electricity price and the CO2 permit price. This renders the capture-ready option unattractive and calls for investments in conventional coal-fired power plants with later CCS investments at higher costs than for the case of a capture ready pre-installation.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.eonerc.rwth-aachen.de/global/show_document.asp?id=aaaaaaaaaaccqxu
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN) in its series FCN Working Papers with number 7/2010.

as in new window
Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2010_007

Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://www.eonerc.rwth-aachen.de/fcn
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: CCS; Real options; Capture-ready; Coal; Power generation; Retrofit;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Yaozhong Hu & Bernt Øksendal, 1998. "Optimal time to invest when the price processes are geometric Brownian motions," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 295-310.
  2. Olsen, Trond E. & Stensland, Gunnar, 1992. "On optimal timing of investment when cost components are additive and follow geometric diffusions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 39-51, January.
  3. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Näsäkkälä, Erkka, 2010. "Gas-fired power plants: Investment timing, operating flexibility and CO2 capture," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 805-816, July.
  4. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Cost Effectiveness of Carbon Capture-Ready Coal Power Plants with Delayed Retrofit," FCN Working Papers 8/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised Dec 2010.
  5. GAHUNGU, Joachim & SMEERS, Yves, 2009. "Multi-assets real options," CORE Discussion Papers 2009051, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  6. Luis M. Abadie & Mikel González-Eguino & José M. Chamorro, 2010. "Optimal Abandonment of Coal-Fired Stations in the EU," Working Papers 2010-07, BC3.
  7. Daskalakis, George & Markellos, Raphael N., 2009. "Are electricity risk premia affected by emission allowance prices? Evidence from the EEX, Nord Pool and Powernext," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2594-2604, July.
  8. Sekar, Ram C. & Parsons, John E. & Herzog, Howard J. & Jacoby, Henry D., 2007. "Future carbon regulations and current investments in alternative coal-fired power plant technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 1064-1074, February.
  9. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Dergiades, Theologos & Christofidou, Georgia & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "The Nexus between Natural Gas Spot and Futures Prices at NYMEX: What about Non-Linear Causality?," FCN Working Papers 17/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  2. Achtnicht, Martin & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Factors influencing German house owners' preferences on energy retrofits," ZEW Discussion Papers 12-042, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  3. Bernstein, Ronald & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Responsiveness of Residential Electricity Demand in OECD Countries: A Panel Cointegation and Causality Analysis," FCN Working Papers 8/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  4. Michelsen, Carl Christian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Homeowners' Motivation to Adopt a Residential Heating System: A Principal-Component Analysis," FCN Working Papers 17/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised Jan 2013.
  5. Michelsen, Carl Christian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Homeowners' Preferences for Adopting Residential Heating Systems: A Discrete Choice Analysis for Germany," FCN Working Papers 9/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  6. Hackbarth, André & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Consumer Preferences for Alternative Fuel Vehicles: A Discrete Choice Analysis," FCN Working Papers 20/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  7. Sorda, Giovanni & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Cost-Effectiveness of Lignocellulose Biorefineries and their Impact on the Deciduous Wood Markets in Germany," FCN Working Papers 8/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  8. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Multi-Commodity Real Options Analysis of Power Plant Investments: Discounting Endogenous Risk Structures," FCN Working Papers 22/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  9. Kraas, Birk & Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion & Pulvermüller, Benedikt & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Economic Assessment of a Concentrating Solar Power Forecasting System for Participation in the Spanish Electricity Market," FCN Working Papers 12/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  10. Himpler, Sebastian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Repowering of Wind Turbines: Economics and Optimal Timing," FCN Working Papers 19/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  11. Ghosh, Gaurav & Shortle, James, 2012. "Managing Pollution Risk through Emissions Trading," FCN Working Papers 1/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  12. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Assessment of Clean-Coal Strategies: The Questionable Merits of Carbon Capture-Readiness," FCN Working Papers 18/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2010_007

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ronald Bernstein).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.