The costs of electricity systems with a high share of fluctuating renewables - a stochastic investment and dispatch optimization model for Europe
AbstractRenewable energies are meant to produce a large share of the future electricity demand. However, the availability of wind and solar power depends on local weather conditions and therefore weather characteristics must be considered when optimizing the future electricity mix. In this article we analyze the impact of the stochastic availability of wind and solar energy on the cost-minimal power plant mix and the related total system costs. To determine optimal conventional, renewable and storage capacities for di fferent shares of renewables, we apply a stochastic investment and dispatch optimization model to the European electricity market. The model considers stochastic feed-in structures and full load hours of wind and solar technologies and different correlations between regions and technologies. Key findings include the overestimation of fluctuating renewables and underestimation of total system costs compared to deterministic investment and dispatch models. Furthermore, solar technologies are - relative to wind turbines - underestimated when neglecting negative correlations between wind speeds and solar radiation.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln in its series EWI Working Papers with number 2012-1.
Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 09 Jan 2012
Date of revision:
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Stochastic programming; electricity; renewable energy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
- Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-01-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2012-01-18 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-EUR-2012-01-18 (Microeconomic European Issues)
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