Ecological Inference for the characterization of electoral turnout: The Portuguese Case
AbstractEcological Inference (IE) is a set of statistical methods that estimate the cells of a contingency table when only the marginal totals are known. Based on King’s model (1997) and considering the legislative elections in Portugal between the years 2002 and 2005, we try to find the stability coefficients (the citizens who, keep the same attitude towards voting in both elections, i.e., they opt for vote or abstention in two consecutive elections) and electoral instability (the citizens who vote in one election and opt for abstention on the other, regardless of the order) for every and each of the municipalities in Portugal. In the Portuguese case, King’s method did not give good estimations. Therefore, in order to find spatial homogeneity in terms of the main political tendencies on the elections under study, we propose territorial “reorganization” based on an abstention pattern arising from the HJ-Biplot method (Galindo, 1986). The territorial “reorganisation” has provided 6 groups of provinces to which King’s model was applied in order to find the percentage of electors who voted or chose abstention in both elections, as well as the percentage of floating electors, i.e., the electors who voted in one election and not on the other.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CIEO-Research Centre for Spatial and Organizational Dynamics, University of Algarve in its series Spatial and Organizational Dynamics Discussion Papers with number 2010-1.
Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 30 Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: University of Algarve, Faculty of Economics, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139 Faro, Portugal, email of President of the Centre: firstname.lastname@example.org
Phone: +351 289 244 406
Web page: http://www.cieo.pt/
More information through EDIRC
Ecological Inference; HJ-Biplot; Territorial Organization; Portuguese Elections;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-10-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-CDM-2010-10-02 (Collective Decision-Making)
- NEP-POL-2010-10-02 (Positive Political Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Silvia Fernandes).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.