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The Voting Rights of Ex-Felons and Election Outcomes in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Klumpp, Tilman

    (University of Alberta, Department of Economics)

  • Mialon, Hugo M.

    (Emory University)

  • Williams, Michael A.

    (Competition Economics)

Abstract

Approximately one in forty adult U.S. citizens has lost their right to vote, either temporarily or permanently, as a result of a felony conviction. Because laws restricting voting by felons and ex-felons disproportionately affect minorities, and minorities tend to vote for Democratic candidates, it has been hypothesized that felony disenfranchisement hurts Democratic candidates in elections, thus helping Republican candidates. We test this hypothesis using variation in felony disenfranchisement laws across U.S. states and over time. During the 2000s, a number of states restored the voting rights of ex-felons. Using difference-in-differences regressions, we estimate the effect of laws reenfranchising ex-felons on the vote shares of major party candidates in elections for seats to the U.S. House of Representatives. We argue that the regression estimates provide an upper bound for the true effect of restoring voting rights to ex-felons on the vote shares of major party candidates. Using this upper bound, no House majority would have been reversed in any year between 1998 and 2012, had all states allowed ex-felons to vote.

Suggested Citation

  • Klumpp, Tilman & Mialon, Hugo M. & Williams, Michael A., 2017. "The Voting Rights of Ex-Felons and Election Outcomes in the United States," Working Papers 2017-3, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:albaec:2017_003
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    File URL: https://sites.ualberta.ca/~econwps/2017/wp2017-03.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael V. Haselswerdt, 2009. "Con Job: An Estimate of Ex‐Felon Voter Turnout Using Document‐Based Data," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 90(2), pages 262-273, June.
    2. Marc, Meredith & Michael, Morse, 2015. "The Politics of the Restoration of Ex-Felon Voting Rights: The Case of Iowa," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 10(1), pages 41-100, May.
    3. Thomas J. Miles, 2004. "Felon Disenfranchisement and Voter Turnout," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 85-129, January.
    4. Mark Lopez, 2010. "The Voting Behavior of Young Disenfranchised Felons: Would They Vote if They Could?," American Law and Economics Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 265-279.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Voting rights; election law; felony disenfranchisement; U.S. Congress;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • K19 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Other

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