The Awakening Chinese Economy: Macro and Terms of Trade Impacts on 10 Major Asia-Pacific Countries
AbstractThis paper analyzes the impact that terms of trade (TOT) are likely to have on the growth of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) neighboring countries. Two scenarios employing a dynamic computable general equilibrium framework are considered: (i) a convergence scenario, where historical trends are projected; and (ii) a baseline scenario, where technological progress in the PRC is placed in line with that of the United States (US). The results show that the PRC’s technological convergence leads to increased world prices for mining products, and lower world prices for manufactures, especially those exported extensively by the PRC. On the whole, however, the effects on the growth and TOT of the PRC’s neighboring countries are relatively small. The modelling framework used in this study explicitly captures the various offsetting effects that dampen the impact on TOT and contribute to the small impact on growth. In addition, the additional capital required to finance the PRC’s growth comes predominantly from domestic savings, placing little pressure on the global supply of capital. Thus, an awakening PRC is unlikely to make a dramatic entrance despite the country’s overall positive impact on the region – although there is nothing to fear, there is also only little to gain.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Asian Development Bank in its series Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration with number 66.
Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2010
Date of revision:
computable general equilibrium; multicountry models; People’s Republic of China; terms of trade;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-12-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2010-12-18 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-SEA-2010-12-18 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ippei Fujiwara, 2013.
"The global impact of Chinese growth,"
Asia Pacific Economic Papers
399, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Ippei Fujiwara & Keisuke Otsu & Masashi Saito, 2011. "The Global Impact of Chinese Growth," Studies in Economics 1115, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
- Ippei Fujiwara & Keisuke Otsu & Masashi Saito, 2008. "The Global Impact of Chinese Growth," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-22, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2007. "China and the Exports of Other Asian Countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 143(2), pages 201-226, July.
- Menon, Jayant, 1998. "Total factor productivity growth in foreign and domestic firms in Malaysian manufacturing," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 251-280.
- Dixon, Peter B & Menon, Jayant & Rimmer, Maureen T, 2000. "Changes in Technology and Preferences: A General Equilibrium Explanation of Rapid Growth in Trade," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 33-55, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ivan B. de Leon).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.