Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Awakening Chinese Economy: Macro and Terms of Trade Impacts on 10 Major Asia-Pacific Countries

Contents:

Author Info

  • Mai, Yin Hua

    ()
    (Centre of Policy Studies and IMPACT Project)

  • Adams, Philip

    ()
    (Centre of Policy Studies and IMPACT Project)

  • Dixon, Peter

    ()
    (Centre of Policy Studies and IMPACT Project)

  • Menon, Jayant

    ()
    (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact that terms of trade (TOT) are likely to have on the growth of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) neighboring countries. Two scenarios employing a dynamic computable general equilibrium framework are considered: (i) a convergence scenario, where historical trends are projected; and (ii) a baseline scenario, where technological progress in the PRC is placed in line with that of the United States (US). The results show that the PRC’s technological convergence leads to increased world prices for mining products, and lower world prices for manufactures, especially those exported extensively by the PRC. On the whole, however, the effects on the growth and TOT of the PRC’s neighboring countries are relatively small. The modelling framework used in this study explicitly captures the various offsetting effects that dampen the impact on TOT and contribute to the small impact on growth. In addition, the additional capital required to finance the PRC’s growth comes predominantly from domestic savings, placing little pressure on the global supply of capital. Thus, an awakening PRC is unlikely to make a dramatic entrance despite the country’s overall positive impact on the region – although there is nothing to fear, there is also only little to gain.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://aric.adb.org/pdf/workingpaper/WP66_Mai_The_Awakening_Chinese_Economy.pdf
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Asian Development Bank in its series Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration with number 66.

as in new window
Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:adbrei:0066

Contact details of provider:
Postal: P.O. Box 789, Manila
Fax: (63-2) 636-2648
Email:
Web page: http://www.adb.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: computable general equilibrium; multicountry models; People’s Republic of China; terms of trade;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Ippei Fujiwara, 2013. "The global impact of Chinese growth," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 399, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2007. "China and the Exports of Other Asian Countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 143(2), pages 201-226, July.
  3. Menon, Jayant, 1998. "Total factor productivity growth in foreign and domestic firms in Malaysian manufacturing," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 251-280.
  4. Dixon, Peter B & Menon, Jayant & Rimmer, Maureen T, 2000. "Changes in Technology and Preferences: A General Equilibrium Explanation of Rapid Growth in Trade," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 33-55, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:adbrei:0066. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ivan B. de Leon).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.