IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/adbewp/0419.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Declining Share of Agricultural Employment in the People’s Republic of China: How Fast?

Author

Listed:
  • Felipe, Jesus

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Dacuycuy, Connie

    (Ateneo de Manila University)

  • Lanzafame, Matteo

    (Università degli Studi di Messina)

Abstract

From 1962 to 2013, the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s)agricultural employment share declined from 82% to 31%. The transfer of workers out of low-productivity agriculture is a fundamental pillar of the PRC’s aspirations to progress and eventually become a high-income economy. We hypothesize that the drivers of this decline have been the increase in income per capita, industrial value added, foreign direct investment, and domestic credit. We use an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model to test the strong exogeneity of the regressors so that we can use it for forecasting. Results indicate that the share of employment in agriculture in the PRC will decline to about 24% by 2020, the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020). We also estimate that the PRC’s employment share will reach 5%, the share observed in today’s rich economies, by 2042–2048.

Suggested Citation

  • Felipe, Jesus & Dacuycuy, Connie & Lanzafame, Matteo, 2014. "The Declining Share of Agricultural Employment in the People’s Republic of China: How Fast?," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 419, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0419
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/149676/ewp-419.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bardsen, Gunnar, 1989. "Estimation of Long Run Coefficients in Error Correction Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(3), pages 345-350, August.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    3. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    4. World Bank, 2014. "World Development Indicators 2014," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 18237, December.
    5. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abhijit Sen Gupta & Vishal More & Kanupriya Gupta, 2018. "Why Generating Productive Jobs is Essential for Reducing Poverty in India: Evidence from Indian Regions," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 61(4), pages 563-587, December.
    2. Sen Gupta, Abhijit & More, Vishal & Gupta, Kanupriya, 2016. "Structural Change and Poverty Reduction at Sub-State Levels in India," MPRA Paper 72740, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahmed, Khalid, 2015. "The sheer scale of China’s urban renewal and CO2 emissions: Multiple structural breaks, long-run relationship and short-run dynamics," MPRA Paper 71035, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur & Mamun, Shamsul Arifeen Khan, 2016. "Energy use, international trade and economic growth nexus in Australia: New evidence from an extended growth model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 806-816.
    3. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.
    4. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2015. "The Determinants of Long-run Real Exchange Rate in South Africa: A Fundamental Equilibrium Approach," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 319-336, September.
    5. Tang, Chor Foon, 2008. "A re-examination of the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Malaysia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3067-3075, August.
    6. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2017. "Modelling long-run equilibrium exchange rate in Botswana," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 268-285, September.
    7. Hamdi, Helmi & Sbia, Rashid & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2014. "The nexus between electricity consumption and economic growth in Bahrain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 227-237.
    8. Yaya Keho, 2011. "Long‐Run Determinants Of Savings Rates In Waemu Countries: An Empirical Assessment From Ardl Bounds Testing Approach," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(3), pages 312-329, September.
    9. Marques, André M. & Carvalho, André R., 2022. "Testing the neo-fisherian hypothesis in Brazil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 407-419.
    10. Singh, Tarlok, 2008. "Testing the Saving-Investment correlations in India: An evidence from single-equation and system estimators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1064-1079, September.
    11. Yixiao Jiang & George K. Zestos & Zachary Timmerman, 2020. "A Vector Error Correction Model for Japanese Real Exports," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 48(3), pages 297-311, September.
    12. Muhammad Uzair Ali & Zhimin Gong & Muhammad Ubaid Ali & Xiong Wu & Chen Yao, 2021. "Fossil energy consumption, economic development, inward FDI impact on CO2 emissions in Pakistan: Testing EKC hypothesis through ARDL model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3210-3221, July.
    13. Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2015. "On the causal dynamics between hydroelectricity consumption and economic growth in Latin America countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1857-1868.
    14. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    15. Kyriakos Emmanouilidis & Christos Karpetis, 2020. "The Defense–Growth Nexus: A Review of Time Series Methods and Empirical Results," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 86-104, January.
    16. Dogan, Eyup & Seker, Fahri, 2016. "Determinants of CO2 emissions in the European Union: The role of renewable and non-renewable energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 429-439.
    17. Felipe, Jesus & Bayudan-Dacuycuy, Connie & Lanzafame, Matteo, 2016. "The declining share of agricultural employment in China: How fast?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 127-137.
    18. Chandran, V.G.R. & Tang, Chor Foon, 2013. "The impacts of transport energy consumption, foreign direct investment and income on CO2 emissions in ASEAN-5 economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 445-453.
    19. Leiva, Benjamin & Liu, Zhongyuan, 2019. "Energy and economic growth in the USA two decades later: Replication and reanalysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 89-99.
    20. Khalid M. Kisswani & Mohammad I. Elian, 2017. "Exploring the nexus between oil prices and sectoral stock prices: Nonlinear evidence from Kuwait stock exchange," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1286061-128, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    agricultural employment; People’s Republic of China; structural transformation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0419. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Orlee Velarde (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eradbph.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.