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Middle Class Size in the Past, Present, and Future: A Description of Trends in Asia

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Abstract

This paper describes the size of the middle class in developing Asia across countries and over time. Based on an absolute measure of the middle class of $2–$20 (2005 purchasing power parity United States dollars), it finds that between 1990 and 2008, the size of the middle class in developing Asia has grown dramatically in percentage share, absolute size, and purchasing power. However, there are large variations in the size and growth of the middle class across countries, with the primary growth of the middle class largely driven by the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Considerably smaller growth has occurred in many countries including Nepal and Sri Lanka. Still, a large portion of the middle class residing in the $2–$4 range are extremely vulnerable, and many of the poor in Asia remain in the PRC and India. This suggests that it may be good for policymakers to not only focus on countries that have lagged behind in terms of growth of the middle class, but that it should also concern itself with focusing on countries where there is still considerable room to build, and bolster the absolute size of the middle class in Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Chun, Natalie, 2010. "Middle Class Size in the Past, Present, and Future: A Description of Trends in Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 217, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0217
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    Cited by:

    1. Hai‐Anh H. Dang & Elena Ianchovichina, 2018. "Welfare Dynamics With Synthetic Panels: The Case of the Arab World In Transition," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(s1), pages 114-144, October.
    2. Kapsos, Steven. & Bourmpoula, Evangelia., 2013. "Employment and economic class in the developing world," ILO Working Papers 994855123402676, International Labour Organization.
    3. Mrdjan Milićev Mladjan & Dušan Zvonkov Marković, 2021. "Generational Responsibility in Consumption as a Response to Global Economic Crises," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-26, March.
    4. Abebe Shimeles & Mthuli Ncube, 2015. "The Making of the Middle-Class in Africa: Evidence from DHS Data," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(2), pages 178-193, February.
    5. Nizar, Muhammad Afdi, 2015. "Kelas Menengah (Middle Class) dan Implikasinya bagi Perekonomian Indonesia [Middle Class and Its Implications for the Indonesian Economy]," MPRA Paper 98471, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Suttie, D. & Vargas-Lundius, R., 2016. "IFAD RESEARCH SERIES 2 - Migration and transformative pathways: a rural perspective," IFAD Research Series 280036, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).
    7. repec:ilo:ilowps:485512 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Mariam Shahzadi & Muhammad Faraz Riaz & Sofia Anwar & Samia Nasreen, 2017. "How unequal is the size of middle class in the rural urban areas of Punjab province," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(2), pages 253-266, February.
    9. Fitrawaty, & Maipita, Indra & Hermawan, Wawan & Rahman, Haikal, 2018. "The Impact of Middle-Class towards Economic Growth and Income Inequality in Indonesia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 52(3), pages 3-16.
    10. Jean-Philippe Berrou & Matthieu Clément & François Combarnous & Dominique Darbon & Yves-André Faure & Eric Rougier, 2019. "L’essor des classes moyennes dans les pays en développement et émergents : une étude comparative des enjeux d’identification, de caractérisation et de politiques publiques," Working Papers hal-02147531, HAL.
    11. Khalid Abu-Ismail & Niranjan Sarang, 2015. "Rethinking the measurement of the middle class: Evidence from Egypt," WIDER Working Paper Series 023, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Eric Rougier & Jean‐Philippe Berrou & Matthieu Clément & François Combarnous & Dominique Darbon, 2021. "Should we call it a (middle) class? A socio‐economic exploration of the Vietnamese middle‐income group," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(8), pages 1321-1345, November.
    13. Andy Sumner, 2012. "The Buoyant Billions: How “Middle Class†Are the New Middle Classes in Developing Countries? (And Why Does It Matter?)," Working Papers id:5169, eSocialSciences.
    14. Orlando Zambrano Roman, 2020. "An emerging but vulnerable middle class: a description of trends in Asia and the Pacific," Asia-Pacific Sustainable Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 27(1), pages 1-20, June.
    15. CAI, Fang & DU, Yang, 2011. "Wage increases, wage convergence, and the Lewis turning point in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 601-610.
    16. repec:ilo:ilowps:482296 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Huynh, Phu. & Kapsos, Steven., 2013. "Economic class and labour market inclusion poor and middle class workers in developing Asia and the Pacific," ILO Working Papers 994822963402676, International Labour Organization.
    18. Radhouane FILALI & Anis BOUABID, 2016. "Profils Et Déterminants Socioéconomiques De La Classe Moyenne En Tunisie," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 44, pages 79-101.
    19. Andy Sumner, 2012. "The Buoyant Billions: How “Middle Class” Are the New Middle Classes in Developing Countries? (And Why Does It Matter?)," Working Papers 309, Center for Global Development.
    20. Durr-e-Nayab, 2011. "Estimating the Middle Class in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(1), pages 1-28.
    21. Vagisha Gunasekara, 2015. "Unpacking the Middle: A Class-based Analysis of the Labour Market in Sri Lanka," Southern Voice Occasional Paper 22, Southern Voice.
    22. Reham Rizk & Ricardo Nogales, 2017. "Revisiting the Middle-Class Myth: Evidence From A Cross-Country Analysis of African Social Progress," Working Papers 1139, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 2003.
    23. Khalid Abu-Ismail & Niranjan Sarang, 2015. "Rethinking the Measurement of the Middle Class: Evidence from Egypt," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2015-023, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    24. Bruno Jetin, 2012. "The role of China in the global capitalist economy: an unavoidable rise or a possible decline?," Post-Print halshs-03190469, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inclusive growth; developing Asia; middle class;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General

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