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The People’s Republic of China as an Engine of Growth for Developing Asia? Evidence from Vector Autoregression Models

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  • Park, Donghyun

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Shin, Kwanho

    (Korea University)

Abstract

Developing Asia has traditionally relied on exports to the United States (US) and other industrialized countries for demand and growth. As a result, the collapse of exports to the US and other industrialized countries during the global financial and economic crisis has sharply curtailed gross domestic product (GDP) growth across the region. The emergence of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as a globally influential economic force is fueling hopes that it can supplement the US as an additional source of demand and growth. The central objective of this paper is to use vector autoregression (VAR) models to empirically investigate whether exports to the PRC have a significant and positive effect on the GDP of nine developing Asian countries. The study’s results from a three-variable VAR model indicate that PRC’s imports have a significant positive effect on the GDP of regional countries. However, the study’s results from a four-variable VAR model indicate that the PRC’s apparently positive impact reflects the US’ demand for Asian goods, rather than independent demand from the PRC. Therefore, overall, the study’s evidence suggests that the PRC is not yet an engine of growth for the rest of the region.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Asian Development Bank in its series ADB Economics Working Paper Series with number 175.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0175

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Related research

Keywords: China; Asia; trade; engine; recovery; growth; VAR;

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  1. Park, Donghyun & Shin, Kwanho, 2009. "Can Trade with the People’s Republic of China be an Engine of Growth for Developing Asia?," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 172, Asian Development Bank.
  2. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M Stern, 2002. "The Effects of Multinational Production on Wages and Working Conditions in Developing Countries," Working Papers 483, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  3. Marcus Noland, 1995. "China and the International Economic System," Working Paper Series WP95-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  4. Pula, Gabor & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2009. "Has emerging Asia decoupled? An analysis of production and trade linkages using the Asian international input-output table," Working Paper Series 0993, European Central Bank.
  5. Jane T. Haltmaier & Shaghil Ahmed & Brahima Coulibaly & Ross Knippenberg & Sylvain Leduc & Mario Marazzi & Beth Anne Wilson, 2007. "The role of China in Asia: engine, conduit, or steamroller?," International Finance Discussion Papers 904, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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