This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Consumer Confidence and Elections

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Dimitrios D. Thomakos () (University of Peloponnese, Greece and The Rimini Centre for Economics Analysis, Italy.)
Gikas A. Hardouvelis () (University of Piraeus, Greece and CEPR)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

We investigate the behavior of consumer confidence around national elections in the EU-15 countries during 1985:1-2007:3. Consumer confidence increases before the date of elections and falls subsequently by almost the same amount. It is able to predict the strength of the performance of the incumbent party and its probability of re-election both alone and in the presence of macroeconomic and fiscal variables. The post-election drop is negatively related to the previous run up and is a function of the political - but not the economic - environment. A similar rise and fall characterizes consumer confidence in the United States.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.rcfea.org/RePEc/pdf/wp42_07.pdf
File Format:
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis in its series Working Paper Series with number 42-07.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Jul 2007
Date of revision: Jul 2007
Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:42-07

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.rcfea.org
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Francesco Billi).

Related research
Keywords: consumer confidence; national elections; incumbent party; macro-economy; fiscal conditions; political business cycle; EU-15; USA.;

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Thomas A. Garrett & Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2004. "Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?," Working Papers 2003-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Nicholas S. Souleles, 2001. "Consumer Sentiment: Its Rationality and Usefulness in Forecasting Expenditure - Evidence from the Michigan Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 8410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jason Bram & Sydney Ludvigson, 1998. "Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure? a sentiment index horse race," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun, pages 59-78. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," NBER Working Papers 1838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1998. "Improving macro-economic forecasts: The role of consumer confidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Tim Besley, 2002. "Political institutions and policy choices: evidence from the United States," IFS Working Papers W02/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Jordahl, Henrik, 2001. "An Economic Analysis of Voting in Sweden," Working Paper Series 2001:18, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 1975, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004. "Prediction Markets," NBER Working Papers 10504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Andrew Leigh & Justin Wolfers, 2006. "Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(258), pages 325-340, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Christopher D. Carroll & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & David W. Wilcox, 1991. "Does consumer sentiment affect household spending? If so why?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 168, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Other versions:
  12. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-73, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections," IZA Discussion Papers 1996, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. A. Galeotti & G. Salford, 2001. "Electoral Cycles: Do they really fit the Data?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-076/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  15. E. Philip Howrey, 2001. "The Predictive Power of the Index of Consumer Sentiment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2001-1), pages 175-216. [Downloadable!]
  16. Vuchelen, Jef, 1995. "Political events and consumer confidence in Belgium," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 563-579, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Peltzman, Sam, 1987. "Economic Conditions and Gubernatorial Elections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 293-97, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Andrew Leigh, 2004. "Does the World Economy Swing National Elections?," CEPR Discussion Papers 485, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," IZA Discussion Papers 1991, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. Stigler, George J, 1973. "General Economic Conditions and National Elections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(2), pages 160-67, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Wolfers, Justin, 2002. "Are Voters Rational? Evidence from Gubernatorial Elections," Research Papers 1730, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Over 80% of the top 1000 economists are registered on RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-2.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.