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A Spatial-Dependence Continuous-Time Model for Regional Unemployment in Germany

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Author Info
Johan H.L. Oud () (Radboud University Nijmegen, The Netherlands)
Henk Folmer () (University of Groningen and University of Wageningen, The Netherlands)
Roberto Patuelli () (University of Lugano, Switzerland and The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy)
Peter Nijkamp () (VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

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Abstract

This paper analyzes patterns of regional labour market development in Germany over the period 2000-2003 by means of a spatial-dependence continuous-time model. (Spatial) panel data are routinely modelled in discrete time. However, there are compelling arguments for continuous time modelling of (spatial) panel data. Particularly, most social processes evolve in continuous time such that analysis in discrete time is an oversimplification, gives a distorted representation of reality and leads to misinterpretation of estimation results. The most compelling reason for continuous time modelling is that, in contrast to discrete time modelling, it allows for adequate modelling of dynamic adjustment processes (see, for example, Special Issue 62:1, 2008, of Statistica Neerlandica). We introduce spatial dependence in a continuous time modelling framework and apply the unified framework to regional labour market development in Germany. The empirical results show substantial autoregressive effects for unemployment and population development, as well as a negative effect of unemployment development on population development. The reverse effect is not significant. Neither are the effects of the development of regional average wages and of the manufacturing sector on the development of unemployment and population.

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Paper provided by Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis in its series Working Paper Series with number 39-08.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
Date of revision: Jan 2008
Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:39-08

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Related research
Keywords: Continuous time modelling; structural equation modelling; spatial dependence; panel data; disattenuation; measurement errors; Germany.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
O18 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Regional, Urban, and Rural Analyses
R11 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Analysis of Growth, Development, and Changes

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