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On the efficiency and consistency of likelihood estimation in multivariate conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic regression models

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  • Gabriele Fiorentini

    ()
    (University of Florence and The Rimini Centre for Economics Analysis, Italy.)

  • Enrique Sentana

    ()
    (CEMFI, Spain)

Abstract

We rank the efficiency of several likelihood-based parametric and semiparametric estimators of conditional mean and variance parameters in multivariate dynamic models with i.i.d. spherical innovations, and show that Gaussian pseudo maximum likelihood estimators are inefficient except under normality. We also provide conditions for partial adaptivity of semiparametric procedures, and relate them to the consistency of distributionally misspecified maximum likelihood estimators. We propose Hausman tests that compare Gaussian pseudo maximum likelihood estimators with more efficient but less robust competitors. We also study the efficiency of sequential estimators of the shape parameters. Finally, we provide finite sample results through Monte Carlo simulations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis in its series Working Paper Series with number 38-07.

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Date of creation: Jul 2007
Date of revision: Jul 2007
Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:38-07

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Related research

Keywords: Adaptivity; ARCH; Elliptical Distributions; Financial Returns; Hausman tests; Semiparametric Estimators; Sequential Estimators.;

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  1. Drost, F.C. & Klaassen, C.A.J., 1997. "Efficient estimation in semiparametric GARCH models," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-74146, Tilburg University.
  2. Sentana, E., 1994. "The Likelihood Function of a Conditionally Heteroskdastic Factor Model with Heywood Cases," Papers 9420, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  3. Keith Vorkink & Douglas J. Hodgson & Oliver Linton, 2002. "Testing the capital asset pricing model efficiently under elliptical symmetry: a semiparametric approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(6), pages 617-639.
  4. Drost, Feike C. & Klaassen, Chris A. J., 1997. "Efficient estimation in semiparametric GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 193-221, November.
  5. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana Iváñez, 1997. "Identification, estimation and testing of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models," Working Papers. Serie AD 1997-22, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
  7. Enrique SENTANA, 2000. "The Likelihood Function of Conditionally Heteroskedastic Factor Models," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 58, pages 1-19.
  8. Peter Hall & Qiwei Yao, 2003. "Inference in Arch and Garch Models with Heavy--Tailed Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 285-317, January.
  9. Sentana, Enrique, 2004. "Factor representing portfolios in large asset markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 257-289, April.
  10. Douglas J. Hodgson & Keith Vorkink, 2001. "Efficient Estimation of Conditional Asset Pricing Models," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 144, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  11. Giorgio Calzolari & Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2004. "Constrained Indirect Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(4), pages 945-973, October.
  12. Javier F. Mencia & Enrique Sentana, 2004. "Estimation and testing of dynamic models with generalised hyperbolic innovations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24742, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  13. N. Meddahi & C. Bontemps, 2004. "Testing Distributional Assumptions: A GMM Approach," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 487, Econometric Society.
  14. Enrique Sentana & Dante Amegual, 2008. "A Comparison Of Mean-Variance Efficiency Tests," Working Papers wp2008_0806, CEMFI.
  15. Engle, Robert F & Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria, 1991. "Semiparametric ARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 345-59, October.
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  17. Song Chen, 2000. "Probability Density Function Estimation Using Gamma Kernels," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 471-480, September.
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  20. Donald W. K. Andrews, 1999. "Estimation When a Parameter Is on a Boundary," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1341-1384, November.
  21. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique & Calzolari, Giorgio, 2004. "On the validity of the Jarque-Bera normality test in conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic regression models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 307-312, June.
  22. Douglas Hodgson, 2000. "Unconditional pseudo-maximum likelihood and adaptive estimation in the presence of conditional heterogeneity of unknown form," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 175-206.
  23. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1994. "Graphical Methods for Investigating the Size and Power of Hypothesis Tests," Working Papers 903, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  24. Drost, F.C. & Klaassen, C.A.J. & Werker, B.J.M., 1997. "Adaptive estimation in time-series models," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-74145, Tilburg University.
  25. Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria & Drost, Feike C., 1999. "Efficiency comparisons of maximum-likelihood-based estimators in GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 93-111, November.
  26. Oliver Linton, 1993. "Adaptive Estimation in ARCH Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1054, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  27. Rombouts, Jeroen V. K. & Hafner, Christian M., 2004. "Semiparametric multivariate volatility models," Papers 2004,14, Humboldt-Universität Berlin, Center for Applied Statistics and Economics (CASE).
  28. Gonzalez-Rivera, G., 1995. "A Note on Adaptation in Garch Models," The A. Gary Anderson Graduate School of Management 95-1, The A. Gary Anderson Graduate School of Management. University of California Riverside.
  29. Berkane, Maia & Bentler, P. M., 1986. "Moments of elliptically distributed random variates," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(6), pages 333-335, October.
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  31. Demos, Antonis & Sentana, Enrique, 1998. "Testing for GARCH effects: a one-sided approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 97-127, June.
  32. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique & Calzolari, Giorgio, 2003. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference in Multivariate Conditionally Heteroscedastic Dynamic Regression Models with Student t Innovations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(4), pages 532-46, October.
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