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On the efficiency and consistency of likelihood estimation in multivariate conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic regression models

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  • Gabriele Fiorentini

    ()
    (University of Florence and The Rimini Centre for Economics Analysis, Italy.)

  • Enrique Sentana

    ()
    (CEMFI, Spain)

Abstract

We rank the efficiency of several likelihood-based parametric and semiparametric estimators of conditional mean and variance parameters in multivariate dynamic models with i.i.d. spherical innovations, and show that Gaussian pseudo maximum likelihood estimators are inefficient except under normality. We also provide conditions for partial adaptivity of semiparametric procedures, and relate them to the consistency of distributionally misspecified maximum likelihood estimators. We propose Hausman tests that compare Gaussian pseudo maximum likelihood estimators with more efficient but less robust competitors. We also study the efficiency of sequential estimators of the shape parameters. Finally, we provide finite sample results through Monte Carlo simulations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis in its series Working Paper Series with number 38-07.

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Date of creation: Jul 2007
Date of revision: Jul 2007
Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:38-07

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Keywords: Adaptivity; ARCH; Elliptical Distributions; Financial Returns; Hausman tests; Semiparametric Estimators; Sequential Estimators.;

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  1. Sentana, E., 2000. "Factor Representing Portfolios in Large Asset Markets," Papers 0001, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  2. González-Rivera, G. & Drost, F.C., 1998. "Efficiency Comparisons of Maximum Likelihood-Based Estimators in GARCH Models," Discussion Paper 1998-124, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  3. Song Chen, 2000. "Probability Density Function Estimation Using Gamma Kernels," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 471-480, September.
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  5. Drost, F.C. & Klaasens, C.A.J. & Werker, B.J.M., 1994. "Adaptive Estimation in Time Series Models," Papers 9488, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  6. Drost, Feike C. & Klaassen, Chris A. J., 1997. "Efficient estimation in semiparametric GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 193-221, November.
  7. Demos, Antonis & Sentana, Enrique, 1998. "Testing for GARCH effects: a one-sided approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 97-127, June.
  8. Oliver Linton & Douglas Steigerwald, 2000. "Adaptive testing in arch models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 145-174.
  9. N. Meddahi & C. Bontemps, 2004. "Testing Distributional Assumptions: A GMM Approach," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 487, Econometric Society.
  10. Douglas J Hodgson & Oliver Linton & Keith Vorkink, 2000. "Testing the capital asset pricing model efficiently under elliptical symmetry : a semiparametric approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2197, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  11. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  12. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1994. "Graphical Methods for Investigating the Size and Power of Hypothesis Tests," Working Papers 903, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
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  14. Mencía, Javier & Sentana, Enrique, 2005. "Estimation and Testing of Dynamic Models with Generalized Hyperbolic Innovations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5177, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique & Calzolari, Giorgio, 2004. "On the validity of the Jarque-Bera normality test in conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic regression models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 307-312, June.
  16. Sentana, Enrique & Fiorentini, Gabriele, 2001. "Identification, estimation and testing of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 143-164, June.
  17. Whitney K. Newey & Douglas G. Steigerwald, 1997. "Asymptotic Bias for Quasi-Maximum-Likelihood Estimators in Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 587-600, May.
  18. Hodgson, Douglas J & Vorkink, Keith P, 2003. "Efficient Estimation of Conditional Asset-Pricing Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(2), pages 269-83, April.
  19. Enrique Sentana & Dante Amegual, 2008. "A Comparison Of Mean-Variance Efficiency Tests," Working Papers wp2008_0806, CEMFI.
  20. Rombouts, Jeroen V. K. & Hafner, Christian M., 2004. "Semiparametric multivariate volatility models," Papers 2004,14, Humboldt-Universität Berlin, Center for Applied Statistics and Economics (CASE).
  21. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2003. "Asymptotic Theory For A Vector Arma-Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 280-310, April.
  22. Douglas Hodgson, 2000. "Unconditional pseudo-maximum likelihood and adaptive estimation in the presence of conditional heterogeneity of unknown form," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 175-206.
  23. Berkane, Maia & Bentler, P. M., 1986. "Moments of elliptically distributed random variates," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(6), pages 333-335, October.
  24. Giorgio Calzolari & Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2004. "Constrained Indirect Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 945-973.
  25. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
  26. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique & Calzolari, Giorgio, 2003. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference in Multivariate Conditionally Heteroscedastic Dynamic Regression Models with Student t Innovations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(4), pages 532-46, October.
  27. Enrique SENTANA, 2000. "The Likelihood Function of Conditionally Heteroskedastic Factor Models," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 58, pages 1-19.
  28. Sentana, E., 1994. "The Likelihood Function of a Conditionally Heteroskdastic Factor Model with Heywood Cases," Papers 9420, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  29. Engle, Robert F & Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria, 1991. "Semiparametric ARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 345-59, October.
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  31. Linton, Oliver, 1993. "Adaptive Estimation in ARCH Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(04), pages 539-569, August.
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