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Is Volatility Good for Growth?

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Author Info
Elena Andreou () (University of Cyprus, Cyprus)
Marianne Sensier (The University of Manchester, UK)
Alessandra Pelloni () (University of Rome ‘Tor Vergata’ and The Rimini Centre of Economic Analisys, Italy)

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Abstract

We provide empirical support for a DSGE model with nominal wage stickiness where growth is driven by learning-by-doing and money shocks and their variance are allowed to impact on long-run output growth. In our theoretical model the variance of monetary shocks has a negative effect on growth, while output volatility is good for growth as a positive relationship exists. Utilising a bivariate GARCH-M model we test the empirical conditional mean and variance relationships of nominal money and production growth rates in the G7 countries. We corroborate the theoretical model predictions with evidence from Bonferroni multiple tests across the G7.

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Paper provided by Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis in its series Working Paper Series with number 37-08.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
Date of revision: Jan 2008
Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:37-08

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Related research
Keywords: growth uncertainty; learning-by-doing; monetary uncertainty; multivariate GARCH-in-mean; nominal rigidity.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
O42 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models

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  2. Temple, Jonathan, 2000. " Inflation and Growth: Stories Short and Tall," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(4), pages 395-426, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Henry E. Siu & Ennio Stacchetti, 2005. "Fluctuations in Convex Models of Endogenous Growth I: Growth Effects," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(4), pages 780-804, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Kevin B. Grier & Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 551-565. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Peel, D A & Speight, A E H, 1998. "Modelling Business Cycle Nonlinearity in Conditional Mean and Conditional Variance: Some International and Sectoral Evidence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 65(258), pages 211-29, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Pelloni, Alessandra, 1997. "Nominal Shocks, Endogenous Growth and the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(441), pages 467-74, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Blackburn, Keith & Pelloni, Alessandra, 2004. "On the relationship between growth and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 123-127, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
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  16. de Hek, Paul A, 1999. "On Endogenous Growth under Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 727-44, August.
  17. K Blackburn & R Galindev, 2003. "Growth, Volatility and Learning," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0303, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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