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The Complex Response of Monetary Policy to the Exchange Rate

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Author Info
Costas Milas () (Keele University, UK and The Rimini Centre for Economics Analysis, Italy.)
Christopher Martin (Brunel University, UK)
Ram Sharan Kharel (Brunel University, UK)

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Abstract

We estimate a flexible non-linear monetary policy rule for the UK to examine the response of policymakers to the real exchange rate. We have three main findings. First, policymakers respond to real exchange rate misalignment rather than to the real exchange rate itself. Second, policymakers ignore small deviations of the exchange rate; they only respond to real exchange under-valuations of more than 4% and over-valuations of more than 5%. Third, the response of policymakers to inflation is smaller when the exchange rate is over-valued and larger when it is under-valued. None of these responses is allowed for in the widely-used Taylor rule, suggesting that monetary policy is better analysed using a more sophisticated model, such as the one suggested in this paper.

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Paper provided by Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis in its series Working Paper Series with number 37-07.

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Date of creation: Jul 2007
Date of revision: Jul 2007
Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:37-07

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Related research
Keywords: monetary policy asset prices nonlinearity

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2004. "Interest-Rate Smoothing: Monetary Policy Inertia or Unobserved Variables?," Contributions to Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 4(1), pages 1169-1169. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Frank Smets, 1997. "Financial asset prices and monetary policy: theory and evidence," BIS Working Papers 47, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Jagjit S. Chadha & Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2004. " Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," CDMA Working Paper Series 0403, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Mehtap Kesriyeli & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2004. "Nonlinearity and Structural Change in Interest Rate Reaction Functions for the US, UK and Germany," Working Papers 0414, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Jansen, Eilev S & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing Parameter Constancy and Super Exogeneity in Econometric Equations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 735-63, November.
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  6. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
  7. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2004. "Modelling Monetary Policy: Inflation Targeting in Practice," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71(281), pages 209-221, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 2000. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 165-171, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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