The Complex Response of Monetary Policy to the Exchange Rate
AbstractWe estimate a flexible non-linear monetary policy rule for the UK to examine the response of policymakers to the real exchange rate. We have three main findings. First, policymakers respond to real exchange rate misalignment rather than to the real exchange rate itself. Second, policymakers ignore small deviations of the exchange rate; they only respond to real exchange under-valuations of more than 4% and over-valuations of more than 5%. Third, the response of policymakers to inflation is smaller when the exchange rate is over-valued and larger when it is under-valued. None of these responses is allowed for in the widely-used Taylor rule, suggesting that monetary policy is better analysed using a more sophisticated model, such as the one suggested in this paper.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis in its series Working Paper Series with number 37-07.
Date of creation: Jul 2007
Date of revision: Jul 2007
monetary policy; asset prices; nonlinearity;
Other versions of this item:
- Ram Sharan Kharel & Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2010. "The Complex Response Of Monetary Policy To The Exchange Rate," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(1), pages 103-117, 02.
- Ram Sharan Kharel & Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2006. "The Complex Response of Monetary Policy to the Exchange Rate," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2006/17, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University.
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-11-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-11-10 (Central Banking)
- NEP-IFN-2007-11-10 (International Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2007-11-10 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2007-11-10 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jansen, Eilev S. & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995.
"Testing Parameter Constancy and super Exogeneity in Econometric Equations,"
Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
53, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Jansen, Eilev S & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing Parameter Constancy and Super Exogeneity in Econometric Equations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 735-63, November.
- van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000.
"Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments,"
Econometric Institute Research Papers
EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
- van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001.
- Engel, Charles & West, Kenneth D., 2006.
"Taylor Rules and the Deutschmark: Dollar Real Exchange Rate,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1175-1194, August.
- Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Taylor Rules and the Deutschmark-Dollar Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 10995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mehtap Kesriyeli & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2004.
"Nonlinearity and Structural Change in Interest Rate Reaction Functions for the US, UK and Germany,"
0414, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- M Kesriyeli & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2004. "Nonlinearity and Structural Change in Interest Rate Reaction Functions for the US, UK and Germany," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 44, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
- Martin, Christopher & Costas Milas, 2002.
"Modelling Monetary Policy: Inflation Targeting in Practice,"
Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002
137, Royal Economic Society.
- Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2004. "Modelling Monetary Policy: Inflation Targeting in Practice," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71(281), pages 209-221, 05.
- Alexander Mihailov, 2007.
"Does Instrument Independence Matter under the Constrained Discretionof an Inflation Targeting Goal? Lessons from UK Taylor Rule Empirics,"
Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006
95, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Alexander Mihailov, 2005. "Has More Independence Affected Bank of England's Reaction Function under Inflation Targeting? Lessons from Taylor Rule Empirics," Economics Discussion Papers 601, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
- David Cobham, 2006. "The Overvaluation of Sterling Since 1996: How the Policy makers Responded and Why," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(512), pages F185-F207, 06.
- Christopher Adam & David Cobham & Eric Girardin, 2005. "Monetary Frameworks and Institutional Constraints: UK Monetary Policy Reaction Functions, 1985-2003," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(4), pages 497-516, 08.
- Chadha, Jagjit S & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2003.
"Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices and Exchange Rates,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4114, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jagjit S. Chadha & Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices, and Exchange Rates," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 529-552, November.
- Jagjit S. Chadha & Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," CDMA Working Paper Series 200403, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roberto Patuelli).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.