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Identifying the Shocks Driving Inflation in China

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  • Pierre L. Siklos

    (Wilfrid Laurier University and Viessmann Research Centre Waterloo, Canada and The Rimini Centre for Economics Analysis, Italy)

  • Yang Zhang

    (University of Ottawa, Canada)

Abstract

The time profile of inflation in China resembles the one experienced in major industrial countries. Given the uncertainty surrounding the sources of economic shocks, this paper compares results from three sets of alternative identification conditions, namely the standard Blanchard-Quah approach, the approach of Cover, Enders, and Hueng (2006), as well as the model considered by Bordo, Landon-Lane and Redish (2004). Our principal finding is that inflation in China has been primarily driven by monetary factors. While aggregate supply factors may have pushed inflation to cross the threshold leading to deflation, monetary policy is primarily responsible for Chinese inflationary outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre L. Siklos & Yang Zhang, 2007. "Identifying the Shocks Driving Inflation in China," Working Paper series 34_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:34_07
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    Cited by:

    1. Ashima Goyal & Sritama Ray, 2022. "Exploring correlations between aggregate demand and supply shocks in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2022-004, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    2. Mustafa Çakir & Alain Kabundi, 2017. "Transmission of China's Shocks to the BRIS Countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(3), pages 430-454, September.
    3. Yifeng Yan & Ju'e Guo, 2015. "The Sovereign Yield Curve and the Macroeconomy in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 415-441, August.
    4. Kwo Ping Tam, 2016. "A New Comparative Study On The Free-Floating And Currency Board Regimes In Hong Kong," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 218-238, April.
    5. Claudio Borio & Magdalena Erdem & Andrew Filardo & Boris Hofmann, 2015. "The costs of deflations: a historical perspective," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    6. Genberg, Hans & Siklos, Pierre L., 2010. "Revisiting the shocking aspects of Asian monetary unification," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 445-455, October.
    7. Chiang, Shu-Hen & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Liao, Ying, 2021. "Exploring the sources of inflation dynamics: New evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 313-332.
    8. Eichengreen, Barry & Park, Donghyun & Shin, Kwanho, 2016. "Deflation in Asia: Should the Dangers Be Dismissed?," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 490, Asian Development Bank.
    9. Shu-hen Chiang, 2016. "Rising residential rents in Chinese mega cities: The role of monetary policy," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(16), pages 3493-3509, December.
    10. Lombardi, Domenico & Siklos, Pierre L. & Xie, Xiangyou, 2018. "Monetary policy transmission in systemically important economies and China’s impact," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 61-79.
    11. Yueqing Jia, 2011. "A New Look at China’s Output Fluctuations: Quarterly GDP Estimation with an Unobserved Components Approach," Working Papers 2011-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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