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The Sub-Prime Crisis and UK Monetary Policy

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  • Christopher Martin

    (Brunel University, Uxbridge, UK)

  • Costas Milas

    (Keele University, Staffordshire, UK and The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy)

Abstract

The “sub-prime” crisis, which led to major turbulence in global financial markets beginning in mid-2007, has posed major challenges for monetary policymakers. We analyse the impact on monetary policy of the widening differential between policy rates and the 3-month Libor rate, the benchmark for private sector interest rates. We show that the optimal monetary policy rule should include the determinants of this differential, adding an extra layer of complexity to the problems facing policymakers. Our estimates reveal significant effects of risk and liquidity measures, suggesting the widening differential between base rates and Libor was largely driven by a sharp increase in unsecured lending risk. We calculate that the crisis increased libor by up to 60 basis points; in response base rates fell further and quicker than would otherwise have happened as policymakers sought to offset some of the contractionary effects of the sub-prime crisis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis in its series Working Paper Series with number 31-08.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
Date of revision: Jan 2008
Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:31-08

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Keywords: optimal monetary policy; sub-prime crisis;

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Cited by:
  1. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Barbara Rudolf, 2010. "Macroeconomic and interest rate volatility under alternative monetary operating procedures," BIS Working Papers 319, Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2010. "(How) Do the ECB and the Fed React to Financial Market Uncertainty? – The Taylor Rule in Times of Crisis," Ruhr Economic Papers 0166, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  3. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2012. "Modifying Taylor Reaction Functions in Presence of the Zero-Lower-Bound – Evidence for the ECB and the Fed," Ruhr Economic Papers 0343, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  4. Yüksel, Ebru & Metin-Ozcan, Kivilcim & Hatipoglu, Ozan, 2013. "A survey on time-varying parameter Taylor rule: A model modified with interest rate pass-through," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 122-134.
  5. repec:eid:wpaper:05/10 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2013. "Modifying Taylor reaction functions in the presence of the zero‐lower‐bound — Evidence for the ECB and the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 515-527.
  7. E Philip Davis, 2008. "Liquidity, Financial Crises and the Lender of Last Resort – How Much of a Departure is the Sub-prime Crisis?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Paul Bloxham & Christopher Kent (ed.), Lessons from the Financial Turmoil of 2007 and 2008 Reserve Bank of Australia.
  8. Milas, Costas & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2012. "Financial conditions and nonlinearities in the European Central Bank (ECB) reaction function: In-sample and out-of-sample assessment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 173-189, January.
  9. Thanassis Kazanas & Elias Tzavalis, 2011. "Unveiling the monetary policy rule in euro area," Working Papers 130, Bank of Greece.
  10. Martin, Christopher & Milas, Costas, 2010. "Financial Stability and Monetary Policy," Department of Economics Working Papers 19328, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
  11. Siregar, Reza & Wiranto, Willeam, 2009. "In the Midst of Global Financial Slowdown: the Indonesian Experience," MPRA Paper 19657, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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