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Did Globalization Drive Convergence? Identifying Cross-Country Growth Regimes in the Long Run

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  • Gianfranco Di Vaio

    (Research and Studies Area. Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, Rome, Italy; Center for Labor and Economic Growth, LUISS Guido Carli, Rome, Italy; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Rimini, Italy)

  • Kerstin Enflo

    (Department of Economic History, Lund University, Lund, Sweden)

Abstract

This paper is the first to apply a finite mixture model to a sample of 64 nations to endogenously analyze the cross-country growth behavior over the period 1870-2003. Results show that growth patterns were segmented in two worldwide regimes, the one characterized by convergence in per capita income, and the other by divergence. Interestingly, when three historical epochs are distinctly analyzed, in order to investigate the empirical link between globalization and convergence, the dynamics which dominated over the whole period seem to have emerged only during the post-1950 years. In contrast, the First Global Wave was marked by persistent heterogeneities.

Suggested Citation

  • Gianfranco Di Vaio & Kerstin Enflo, 2010. "Did Globalization Drive Convergence? Identifying Cross-Country Growth Regimes in the Long Run," Working Paper series 30_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:30_10
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    3. Rodríguez, Francisco & Shelton, Cameron A., 2013. "Cleaning up the kitchen sink: Specification tests and average derivative estimators for growth econometrics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 260-273.
    4. Paul A. Johnson, 2020. "Parameter variation in the 'log t' convergence test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(9), pages 736-739, May.
    5. Sawadogo, Relwendé & Semedo, Gervasio, 2021. "Financial inclusion, income inequality, and institutions in sub-Saharan Africa: Identifying cross-country inequality regimes," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 15-28.
    6. Konte M., 2014. "Do remittances not promote growth? : a bias-adjusted three-step mixture-of-regressions," MERIT Working Papers 2014-075, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    7. gebregergis, Cherkos Meaza, 2017. "An Assessment of the Economic Impact of Globalization In Ethiopia: A Co-Integration Analysis," MPRA Paper 83533, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Shana M. Sundstrom & Craig R. Allen & David G. Angeler, 2020. "Scaling and discontinuities in the global economy," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 319-345, April.
    9. Maty Konte, 2013. "A curse or a blessing? Natural resources in a multiple growth regimes analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(26), pages 3760-3769, September.
    10. Zeira, Joseph & di Vaio, Gianfranco & Battisti, Michele, 2013. "Global Divergence in Growth Regressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 9687, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Paul Johnson & Chris Papageorgiou, 2020. "What Remains of Cross-Country Convergence?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(1), pages 129-175, March.
    12. Ouédraogo, Rasmané & Sawadogo, Relwendé & Sawadogo, Hamidou, 2020. "Private and public investment in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of instability risks," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(2).
    13. Longfeng Ye & Peter E. Robertson, 2016. "On the Existence of a Middle-Income Trap," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(297), pages 173-189, June.
    14. Zarembova, Andrea & Lyocsa, Stefan & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2012. "The Real Convergence of CEE Countries: A Study of Real GDP per capita," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 60(6), pages 642-656.
    15. Michele Battisti & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2011. "Income Polarization, Convergence Tools and Mixture Analysis," Working Papers 2011-17, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
    16. Rasmane Ouedraogo & Windemanegda Sandrine Sourouema & Hamidou Sawadogo, 2021. "Aid, growth and institutions in Sub‐Saharan Africa: New insights using a multiple growth regime approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 107-142, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Globalization; Economic growth; Income convergence; Multiple regimes; Mixture models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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