Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

MCMC Estimation of Extended Hodrick-Prescott (HP) Filtering Models

Contents:

Author Info

  • Wolfgang Polasek

    ()
    (Institute for Advanced Studies, Austria; University of Porto, Portugal; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA), Italy)

Abstract

The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) method was originally developed to smooth time series, i.e. to get a smooth (long-term) component. We show that the HP smoother can be viewed as a Bayesian linear model with a strong prior for the smoothness component. Extending this Bayesian approach in a linear model set-up is possible by a conjugate and a non-conjugate model using MCMC. The Bayesian HP smoothing model is also extended to a spatial smoothing model. We have to define spatial neighbors for each observation and we can use in a similar way a smoothness prior as for the HP filter in time series. The new smoothing approaches are applied to the (textbook) airline passenger data for time series and to the problem of smoothing spatial regional data. This new approach can be used for a new class of model-based smoothers for time series and spatial models.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.rcfea.org/RePEc/pdf/wp25_11.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis in its series Working Paper Series with number 25_11.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: May 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:25_11

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Via Patara, 3, 47921 Rimini (RN)
Phone: +390541434142
Fax: +39054155431
Email:
Web page: http://www.rcfea.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Hodrick-Prescott (HP) smoothers; Spatial econometrics; MCMC estimation; Airline passenger time series; Spatial smoothing of regional data; NUTS: nomenclature of territorial units for statistics;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Ravn, Morten O., 1997. "International business cycles in theory and in practice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 255-283, April.
  2. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2001. "On Adjusting the HP-Filter for the Frequency of Observations," CESifo Working Paper Series 479, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Wolfgang Polasek, 2011. "MCMC Estimation of Extended Hodrick-Prescott (HP) Filtering Models," Working Paper Series 25_11, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  4. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  5. Wolfgang Polasek & Richard Sellner, 2011. "Does Globalization affect Regional Growth? Evidence for NUTS-2 Regions in EU-27," Working Paper Series 24_11, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  6. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Girardin, Michel, 1989. "Business cycles in Switzerland : A comparative study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 31-50, January.
  7. Blackburn, Keith & Ravn, Morten O, 1992. "Business Cycles in the United Kingdom: Facts and Fictions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 59(236), pages 383-401, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Polasek, Wolfgang, 2011. "The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) Filter as a Bayesian Regression Model," Economics Series 277, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  2. Wolfgang Polasek, 2011. "The Extended Hodrick-Prescott (HP) Filter for Spatial Regression Smoothing," Working Paper Series 45_11, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  3. Wolfgang Polasek, 2012. "MCMC Estimation of Extended Hodrick-Prescott (HP) Filtering Models," DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, European Association Comenius - EACO, issue 1, pages 25-52, March.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:25_11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roberto Patuelli).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.