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Nelson-Plosser revisited: the ACF approach

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Author Info
Karim M. Abadir () (Imperial College London, London, UK and The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy)
Gabriel Talmain () (University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK)
Giovanni Caggiano (University of Padua, Italy)

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Abstract

We detect a new stylized fact about the common dynamics of macroeconomic and financial aggregates. The rate of decay of the memory of these series is depicted by their Auto-Correlation Functions (ACFs). They all share a common four-parameter functional form that we derive from the dynamics of an RBC model with heterogeneous firms. We find that, not only does our formula fit the data better than the ACFs that arise from autoregressive models, but it also yields the correct shape of the ACF. This can help policymakers understand better the lags with which an economy evolves, and the onset of its turning points. Classification-JEL: JEL E32, E52, E63

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Paper provided by Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis in its series Working Paper Series with number 18-08.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
Date of revision: Jan 2008
Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:18-08

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  1. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1993. "The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 264-72, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Comin, D. & Gertler, M., 2003. "Medium Term Business Cycles," Working Papers 03-05, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Abadir, Karim & Talmain, Gabriel, 2002. "Aggregation, Persistence and Volatility in a Macro Model," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 69(4), pages 749-79, October.
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  5. Michelacci, Claudio & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2000. "(Fractional) beta convergence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-153, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1988. "Long memory and persistence in aggregate output," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  7. K Abadir & W Distaso & L Giraitis, . "Semiparametric estimation and inference for trending I(d) and related processes," Discussion Papers 05/15, Department of Economics, University of York.
  8. Ireland, Peter N., 2001. "Technology shocks and the business cycle: On empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 703-719, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
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  11. Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, T., 1993. "Cointegration, Fractional Cointegration, and Exchange RAte Dynamics," Papers 9103, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
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  12. Marcus J. Chambers, . "Long Memory and Aggregation in Macroeconomic Time Series," Economics Discussion Papers 437, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
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  13. Diebold, Francis X & Senhadji, Abdelhak S, 1996. "The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1291-98, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Gianluca, MORETTI & Giulio, NICOLETTI, 2008. "Estimating DGSE models with long memory dynamics," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008037, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
  2. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2008. "Long Memory and Non-Linearities in International Inflation," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0076, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno". [Downloadable!]
  3. Karim Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, 2005. "Distilling co-movements from persistent macro and financial series," Working Paper Series 525, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Gianluca Moretti, 2007. "Detecting long memory co-movements in macroeconomic time series," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 642, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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