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Bayesian Inference in a Cointegrating Panel Data Model

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Author Info
Gary Koop () (University of Strathclyde, UK and Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Rimini, Italy)
Roberto Leon-Gonzalez () (University of Leicester, UK and University of Queensland)
Rodney Strachan () (University of Queensland)

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Abstract

This paper develops methods of Bayesian inference in a cointegrating panel data model. This model involves each cross-sectional unit having a vector error correction representation. It is flexible in the sense that different cross-sectional units can have different cointegration ranks and cointegration spaces. Furthermore, the parameters which characterize short-run dynamics and deterministic components are allowed to vary over cross-sectional units. In addition to a noninformative prior, we introduce an informative prior which allows for information about the likely location of the cointegration space and about the degree of similarity in coefficients in different cross-sectional units. A collapsed Gibbs sampling algorithm is developed which allows for efficient posterior inference. Our methods are illustrated using real and artificial data.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis in its series Working Paper Series with number 02-07.

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Date of creation: Jul 2007
Date of revision: Jul 2007
Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:02-07

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Related research
Keywords: Bayesian; panel data cointegration; error correction model; reduced rank regression; Markov Chain Monte Carlo.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data

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  1. Hsiao, Cheng & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2004. "Random Coefficient Panel Data Models," IZA Discussion Papers 1236, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Li, Kai, 1999. "Testing Symmetry and Proportionality in PPP: A Panel-Data Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(4), pages 409-18, October.
  3. Peter Phillips & Hyungsik Moon, 2000. "Nonstationary panel data analysis: an overview of some recent developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 263-286. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Hsiao, C. & Pesaran, M. H. & Tahmiscioglu, A. K., 1998. "Bayes Estimation of Short-run Coefficients in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9804, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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  6. Frank Kleibergen & Herman K. van Dijk, 1998. "Bayesian Simultaneous Equations Analysis using Reduced Rank Structures," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-025/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Suzanne McCoskey & Chihwa Kao, 1998. "A residual-based test of the null of cointegration in panel data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 57-84. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Jacobson, Tor & Lyhagen, Johan & Larsson, Rolf & Nessén, Marianne, 2002. "Inflation, Exchange Rates and PPP in a Multivariate Panel Cointegration Model," Working Paper Series 145, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Strachan, Rodney W, 2003. "Valid Bayesian Estimation of the Cointegrating Error Correction Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 185-95, January.
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  12. Jan J.J. Groen & Frank R. Kleibergen, 1999. "Likelihood-Based Cointegration Analysis in Panels of Vector Error Correction Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-055/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  14. Geweke, John, 1996. "Bayesian reduced rank regression in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 121-146, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Groen, Jan J. J., 2000. "The monetary exchange rate model as a long-run phenomenon," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 299-319, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Kleibergen, Frank & van Dijk, Herman K., 1994. "On the Shape of the Likelihood/Posterior in Cointegration Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 514-551, August. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Chikuse, Yasuko, 1990. "The matrix angular central Gaussian distribution," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 265-274, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Badi H. Baltagi & Chihwa Kao, 2000. "Nonstationary Panels, Cointegration in Panels and Dynamic Panels: A Survey," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 16, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University. [Downloadable!]
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