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Wealth and Time Preference in Rural Ethiopia

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  • Yesuf, Mahmud
  • Bluffstone, Randall

Abstract

This study measured the discount rates of a sample of 262 farm households in the Ethiopian highlands, using a time preference experiment with real payoffs. In general, the median discount rate was very high—more than double the interest rate on the outstanding debt—and varied systematically with wealth and risk aversion. Although we do not have a good theory for explaining the linkage between rates-of-time preferences (RTPs) and risk aversion, our findings warn that these two aspects of household behavior reinforce each other and are easily confused. Our results have important implications for understanding households’ behavior. Because the RTPs were so high, what might seem like profitable investments from the outside might not seem so from the farmers’ perspectives. Furthermore, when future returns were uncertain, risk-averse decision makers favored projects with shorter payback periods and were less willing to invest in projects with long-term benefits. Formal capital market development, including lending and mortgage markets—currently non-existent in most of rural Ethiopia—may help reduce RTPs and cause more investments to be acceptable. The results also suggested the need for more research on the linkages between risk aversion and RTPs in low-income countries.

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  • Yesuf, Mahmud & Bluffstone, Randall, 2008. "Wealth and Time Preference in Rural Ethiopia," RFF Working Paper Series dp-08-16-efd, Resources for the Future.
  • Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-08-16-efd
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    File URL: http://www.rff.org/RFF/documents/EfD-DP-08-16.pdf
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    3. Teh, Louise S.L. & Teh, Lydia C.L. & Rashid Sumaila, U., 2014. "Time preference of small-scale fishers in open access and traditionally managed reef fisheries," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 222-231.
    4. Dodlova, Marina & Göbel, Kristin & Grimm, Michael & Lay, Jann, 2015. "Constrained firms, not subsistence activities: Evidence on capital returns and accumulation in Peruvian microenterprises," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 94-110.
    5. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Effect of poverty on financial development: Does trade openness matter?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 97-112.
    6. Daniel Horn & Hubert Kiss Janos, 2020. "Do individuals with children value the future more?," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 2010, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    7. Lily, Miriam Al & Liebenehm, Sabine & Waibel, Hermann, 2021. "Risk and Time Preferences of Poor Urban Households in Saudi Arabia," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315152, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Marc Oliver Rieger & Mei Wang & Thorsten Hens, 2015. "Risk Preferences Around the World," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(3), pages 637-648, March.
    9. Molla Alemayehu & Joost Beuving & Ruerd Ruben, 2019. "Disentangling Poor Smallholder Farmers’ Risk Preferences and Time Horizons: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Ethiopia," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 31(3), pages 558-580, July.
    10. Wang, Mei & Rieger, Marc Oliver & Hens, Thorsten, 2016. "How time preferences differ: Evidence from 53 countries," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 115-135.
    11. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2022. "Does poverty deter foreign direct investment flows to developing countries?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 297-330, February.
    12. Nigussie, Yalemzewd & van der Werf, Edwin & Zhu, Xueqin & Simane, Belay & van Ierland, Ekko C., 2018. "Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Alternatives for Smallholder Farmers in the Upper Blue-Nile Basin," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 142-150.
    13. Wang, Mei & Rieger, Marc Oliver & Hens, Thorsten, 2011. "How Time Preferences Differ: Evidence from 45 Countries," Discussion Papers 2011/18, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    14. Bruno Martorano & Sudhanshu Handa & Carolyn Halpern & Harsha Thirumurthy, 2014. "Subjective Well-being, Risk Perceptions and Time Discounting: Evidence from a large-scale cash transfer programme," Papers inwopa717, Innocenti Working Papers.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Discounting; Ethiopian farm households; experimental studies; interval regression; time preference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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