The Oberholzer-Gee/Strumpf File-Sharing Instrument Fails the Laugh Test
AbstractI examine the key instrument (German kids on vacation) used by Professors Oberholzer-Gee and Strumpf. Their measured relationship between the instrument and the variable that it is instrumenting for, American downloading, is seen to have outlandish implications, indicating an important error. The instrument is also shown to be related to American record sales, contrary to the requirements of their analysis. The data set used by O/S is biased, considerably overstating the share of German files. Finally, I demonstrate that the instrument must have a de minimus impact on American downloading (and thus American record sales) negating its potential usefulness and implying that their approach could never have worked.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Regulation2point0 in its series Working paper with number 576.
Date of creation: May 2010
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-08-14 (All new papers)
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- Peter Kennedy, 2003. "A Guide to Econometrics, 5th Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 5, volume 1, number 026261183x, December.
- Brett Danaher & Michael D. Smith & Rahul Telang, 2013.
"Piracy and Copyright Enforcement Mechanisms,"
in: Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 14, pages 25-61
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McKenzie, Jordi & Walls, W. D., 2013. "File-Sharing and Film Revenues: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 2013-14, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
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