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Experimental Political Betting Markets and the 2004 Election

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  • Wolfers, Justin
  • Zitzewitz, Eric

Abstract

Betting on elections has been of interest to economists and political scientists for some time. We recently persuaded TradeSports to run experimental contingent betting markets, in which one bets on whether President Bush will be re-elected, conditional on other specified events occurring. Early results suggest that market participants strongly believe that Osama bin Laden's capture would have a substantial effect on President Bush's electoral fortunes, and interestingly that the chance of his capture peaks just before the election. More generally, these markets suggest that issues outside the campaign, like the state of the economy, and progress on the war on terror , are the key factors in the forthcoming election.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Regulation2point0 in its series Working paper with number 430.

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Date of creation: Oct 2004
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Handle: RePEc:reg:wpaper:430

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Cited by:
  1. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," CEPR Discussion Papers 5578, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Five open questions about prediction markets," Working Paper Series 2006-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Hodler, R. & Loertscher , S. & Rohner, D., 2007. "Inefficient Policies and Incumbency Advantage," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0738, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  4. Roland Hodler & Simon Loertscher & Dominic Rohner, 2007. "False Alarm? Terror Alerts and Reelection," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 995, The University of Melbourne.

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