IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed018/1012.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Idiosyncratic shocks and the role of granularity in business cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Tatsuro Senga

    (Queen Mary University of London)

  • Iacopo Varotto

    (Queen Mary University of London)

Abstract

Idiosyncratic shocks faced by large firms in the U.S. appears to be volatile. Such idiosyncratic shocks may not average out in the cross-section and thus can even generate aggregate fluctuations. In this paper, we first construct a panel of US firms using data from Compustat and show a set of stylized facts about cross-sectional and cyclical features of idiosyncratic shocks faced by large firms. Our panel data reveals that the mean and kurtosis of idiosyncratic shocks decrease with firm size, while the standard deviation and skewness increase with firm size. In particular, the distribution of idiosyncratic shocks faced by the largest firms has a negative mean and positive skew. We also show that the mean of idiosyncratic shocks faced by the largest firms is significantly countercyclical. To examine the quantitative importance of such features of idiosyncratic shocks faced by large firms, we then develop an equilibrium business cycle model wherein idiosyncratic shocks can alone alter the shape of the distribution of firms and thus can drive aggregate fluctuations. We develop a general framework to study such models, wherein the law of large number does not hold and the distribution of firms over productivities becomes a random object, rendering infeasible the use of a standard numerical method. The flexibility of this new approach allows us to isolate the two channels through which the idiosyncratic movements of the firms generate aggregate volatility: average productivity and dynamic inefficiency. In addition we quantify the relative importance of the shocks to large firms in driving the cycle. The model is estimated to match micro-level moments of firm size distribution and idiosyncratic shocks, together with standard macro moments. Consistent with existing studies, our results show that idiosyncratic shocks are a quantitatively important micro-origin of aggregate fluctuations, accounting for 25 percent of output volatility relative to the data. Large firm movements account for 11 percent of aggregate volatility, wherein 63 percent reflects dynamic inefficiency channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Tatsuro Senga & Iacopo Varotto, 2018. "Idiosyncratic shocks and the role of granularity in business cycle," 2018 Meeting Papers 1012, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed018:1012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2018/paper_1012.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vasco M Carvalho & Makoto Nirei & Yukiko U Saito & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2021. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 136(2), pages 1255-1321.
    2. Paul Gomme & B. Ravikumar & Peter Rupert, 2011. "The Return to Capital and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 262-278, April.
    3. Vasco M. Carvalho & Basile Grassi, 2019. "Large Firm Dynamics and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1375-1425, April.
    4. Krusell, Per & Smith, Anthony A., 1997. "Income And Wealth Heterogeneity, Portfolio Choice, And Equilibrium Asset Returns," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(2), pages 387-422, June.
    5. Yoshihiko Hogen & Ko Miura & Koji Takahashi, 2017. "Large Firm Dynamics and Secular Stagnation: Evidence from Japan and the U.S," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 17-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    6. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
    7. Vasco M Carvalho & Makoto Nirei & Yukiko U Saito & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 0. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 136(2), pages 1255-1321.
    8. Krueger, D. & Mitman, K. & Perri, F., 2016. "Macroeconomics and Household Heterogeneity," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 843-921, Elsevier.
    9. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2014. "Firms, Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1303-1340, July.
    10. Omar Blanco Arroyo & Simone Alfarano, 2017. "Granularity of the Business Cycle Fluctuations: The Spanish Case," Economia Coyuntural,Revista de temas de perspectivas y coyuntura, Instituto de Investigaciones Economicas y Sociales 'Jose Ortiz Mercado' (IIES-JOM), Facultad de Ciencias Economicas, Administrativas y Financieras, Universidad Autonoma Gabriel Rene Moreno, vol. 2(1), pages 31-58.
    11. Glenn Magerman & Karolien De Bruyne & Emmanuel Dhyne & Jan Van Hove, 2016. "Heterogeneous Firms and the Micro Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-35, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    12. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2008. "Idiosyncratic Shocks and the Role of Nonconvexities in Plant and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(2), pages 395-436, March.
    13. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    14. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2017. "Large Firms and International Business Cycle Comovement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 598-602, May.
    15. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October.
    16. Hopenhayn, Hugo A, 1992. "Entry, Exit, and Firm Dynamics in Long Run Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1127-1150, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Glenn Magerman & Karolien De Bruyne & Emmanuel Dhyne & Jan Van Hove, 2016. "Heterogeneous Firms and the Micro Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-35, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Imbs, Jean & Pauwels, Laurent, 2019. "Fundamental Moments," Working Papers BAWP-2019-06, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    3. David Rezza Baqaee, 2018. "Cascading Failures in Production Networks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(5), pages 1819-1838, September.
    4. Vasco M. Carvalho & Basile Grassi, 2019. "Large Firm Dynamics and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1375-1425, April.
    5. Thomas J. Sargent & John Stachurski, 2022. "Economic Networks: Theory and Computation," Papers 2203.11972, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    6. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2018. "Macroeconomics with Heterogeneous Agents and Input-Output Networks," NBER Working Papers 24684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael S. Schoenle & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidities and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 6619, CESifo.
    8. Kristina Barauskaite & Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, 2021. "Direct and network effects of idiosyncratic TFP shocks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(6), pages 2765-2793, June.
    9. Emmanuel Dhyne & Ayumu Ken Kikkawa & Glenn Magerman, 2022. "Imperfect Competition in Firm-to-Firm Trade," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(5), pages 1933-1970.
    10. Kristina Barauskaite & Anh D. M. Nguyen, 2022. "Intersectoral network‐based channel of aggregate TFP shocks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3897-3910, October.
    11. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2018. "The Micro Origins of International Business-Cycle Comovement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(1), pages 82-108, January.
    12. Kramarz, Francis & Martin, Julien & Mejean, Isabelle, 2020. "Volatility in the small and in the large: The lack of diversification in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    13. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidity and the Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 23750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Yoshiyuki ARATA & Philipp MUNDT, 2019. "Topology and Formation of Production Input Interlinkages: Evidence from Japanese microdata," Discussion papers 19027, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    15. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Pasten, Ernesto & Schoenle, Raphael & Weber, Michael, 2017. "Price rigidities and the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations," Working Paper Series 2102, European Central Bank.
    17. Dong, Feng & Wen, Yi, 2019. "Long and Plosser meet Bewley and Lucas," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 70-92.
    18. Lee, Dongyeol, 2021. "Propagation of economic shocks through vertical and trade linkages in Korea: An empirical analysis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    19. Erik Frohm & Vanessa Gunnella, 2021. "Spillovers in global production networks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 663-680, August.
    20. Frohm, Erik & Gunnella, Vanessa, 2017. "Sectoral interlinkages in global value chains: spillovers and network effects," Working Paper Series 2064, European Central Bank.
    21. Längle, Katharina & Xu, Ankai & Tian, Ruijie, 2021. "Assessing the supply chain effect of natural disasters: Evidence from Chinese manufacturers," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2021-13, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed018:1012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.