IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed014/416.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Regulatory Intensity, Crash Risk, and the Business Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Xuan Tam

    (Cambridge University)

  • Eric Young

    (University of Virginia)

  • bo sun

    (GSM, Peking University)

Abstract

Regulatory investigations affect information in financial markets through two channels: (i) investigations detect financial manipulation and reveal hidden negative information;(ii) regulatory investigations impose adverse consequences for executives involved in manipulation and deter managerial incentives to manipulate ex ante. Moreover, regulatory intensity varies over time, depending on the aggregate state of the economy. We propose a model to study the implications of cyclical regulatory intensity for stock market dynamics, and show that countercyclicality in financial regulation can lead to countercyclicality in crash risk in the stock markets. We also provide evidence that a strong relation between stock crash risk and the business cycle exists in the data. In addition, our model illustrates a unifying mechanism that contributes to a number of stylized facts including gradual booms and sudden crashes in the financial markets, increased crash risk, and countercyclical stock volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Xuan Tam & Eric Young & bo sun, 2014. "Regulatory Intensity, Crash Risk, and the Business Cycle," 2014 Meeting Papers 416, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed014:416
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2014/paper_416.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campbell, John Y. & Hentschel, Ludger, 1992. "No news is good news *1: An asymmetric model of changing volatility in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 281-318, June.
    2. Bo Sun, 2014. "Asset Returns Under Periodic Revelations Of Earnings Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55, pages 255-282, February.
    3. Lo, Kin, 2003. "Economic consequences of regulated changes in disclosure: the case of executive compensation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 285-314, August.
    4. Jin, Li & Myers, Stewart C., 2006. "R2 around the world: New theory and new tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 257-292, February.
    5. Ramanna, Karthik, 2008. "The implications of unverifiable fair-value accounting: Evidence from the political economy of goodwill accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2-3), pages 253-281, August.
    6. Rui Albuquerue & Neng Wang, 2008. "Agency Conflicts, Investment, and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 1-40, February.
    7. Karpoff, Jonathan M. & Lee, D. Scott & Martin, Gerald S., 2008. "The Cost to Firms of Cooking the Books," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(3), pages 581-611, September.
    8. Yael V. Hochberg & Paola Sapienza & Annette Vissing‐Jørgensen, 2009. "A Lobbying Approach to Evaluating the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act of 2002," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 519-583, May.
    9. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    10. Mele, Antonio, 2007. "Asymmetric stock market volatility and the cyclical behavior of expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 446-478, November.
    11. James Dow & Gary Gorton & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2005. "Equilibrium Investment and Asset Prices under Imperfect Corporate Control," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 659-681, June.
    12. Paul Povel & Rajdeep Singh & Andrew Winton, 2007. "Booms, Busts, and Fraud," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1219-1254.
    13. Ramsey, James B & Rothman, Philip, 1996. "Time Irreversibility and Business Cycle Asymmetry," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 1-21, February.
    14. Tracy Yue Wang & Andrew Winton & Xiaoyun Yu, 2010. "Corporate Fraud and Business Conditions: Evidence from IPOs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(6), pages 2255-2292, December.
    15. Brandt, Michael W. & Kang, Qiang, 2004. "On the relationship between the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns: A latent VAR approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 217-257, May.
    16. Bertomeu, Jeremy & Magee, Robert P., 2011. "From low-quality reporting to financial crises: Politics of disclosure regulation along the economic cycle," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 209-227.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bo Sun & Xuan S. Tam & Eric Young, 2020. "The Stock Market Response to a "Regulatory Sine Curve"," International Finance Discussion Papers 1299, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Bertomeu, Jeremy & Magee, Robert P., 2011. "From low-quality reporting to financial crises: Politics of disclosure regulation along the economic cycle," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 209-227.
    3. Ormazabal, Gaizka, 2018. "The Role of Stakeholders in Corporate Governance: A View from Accounting Research," CEPR Discussion Papers 12775, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Wang, Tracy Yue & Winton, Andrew, 2021. "Industry informational interactions and corporate fraud," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    5. Hoberg, Gerard & Lewis, Craig, 2017. "Do fraudulent firms produce abnormal disclosure?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 58-85.
    6. Dan Amiram & Zahn Bozanic & James D. Cox & Quentin Dupont & Jonathan M. Karpoff & Richard Sloan, 2018. "Financial reporting fraud and other forms of misconduct: a multidisciplinary review of the literature," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 732-783, June.
    7. Mariassunta Giannetti & Tracy Yue Wang, 2016. "Corporate Scandals and Household Stock Market Participation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(6), pages 2591-2636, December.
    8. Tim Lohse & Christian Thomann, 2015. "Are bad times good news for the Securities and Exchange Commission?," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 33-47, August.
    9. Basak, Suleyman & Chabakauri, Georgy & Yavuz, M., 2018. "Investor protection and asset prices," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118917, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Andergassen, Rainer, 2016. "Managerial compensation, product market competition and fraud," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-15.
    11. Richardson, Grant & Obaydin, Ivan & Liu, Chelsea, 2022. "The effect of accounting fraud on future stock price crash risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    12. Abdul Ghafoor & Rozaimah Zainudin & Nurul Shahnaz Mahdzan, 2019. "Factors Eliciting Corporate Fraud in Emerging Markets: Case of Firms Subject to Enforcement Actions in Malaysia," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 587-608, December.
    13. Dyck, Alexander & Morse, Adair & Zingales, Luigi, 2023. "How pervasive is corporate fraud?," Working Papers 327, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    14. León, Angel & Nave, Juan & Rubio Irigoyen, Gonzalo, 2005. "The Relationship between Risk and Expected Return in Europe," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    15. Dufour, Jean-Marie & García, René & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2008. "Measuring causality between volatility and returns with high-frequency data," UC3M Working papers. Economics we084422, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    16. Ararat, Melsa & Yurtoglu, B. Burcin, 2021. "Female directors, board committees, and firm performance: Time-series evidence from Turkey," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    17. Albuquerque, Rui & Schroth, Enrique, 2008. "Determinants of the Block Premium and of Private Benefits of Control," CEPR Discussion Papers 6742, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Ben-Nasr, Hamdi & Ghouma, Hatem, 2018. "Employee welfare and stock price crash risk," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 700-725.
    19. Thomas C. Chiang & Jiandong Li, 2012. "Stock Returns and Risk: Evidence from Quantile," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-39, December.
    20. Alexander, Cindy R. & Bauguess, Scott W. & Bernile, Gennaro & Lee, Yoon-Ho Alex & Marietta-Westberg, Jennifer, 2013. "Economic effects of SOX Section 404 compliance: A corporate insider perspective," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 267-290.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed014:416. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.