Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The U.S. Dollar Safety Premium

Contents:

Author Info

  • Matteo Maggiori

    (NYU)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    I show that the US dollar earns a safety premium versus a basket of foreign currencies and that this premium is particularly high in times of global financial stress. These findings support the view that the dollar acts as the reserve currency for the international monetary system and that it is a natural safe haven in times of crisis, when a global flight to quality toward the reserve currency takes place. During such episodes, investors are willing to earn negative expected returns as compensation for holding safe dollars. I estimate the time varying dollar safety premium by using instrumental variable techniques to condition information down.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2013/paper_75.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2013 Meeting Papers with number 75.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:75

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
    Fax: 1-314-444-8731
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/society.htm
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Kristin J. Forbes, 2008. "Why do foreigners invest in the United States?," Working Paper Series 2008-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 358-93, March.
    3. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 1998. "Value versus Growth: The International Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1975-1999, December.
    4. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-76, July.
    5. John H. Cochrane, 2006. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 12026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2011. "Carry Trades and Global Foreign Exchange Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 8291, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 853-891.
    8. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 4893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Philip Lane & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2007. "Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures," NBER Working Papers 13433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Pavlova, Anna & Rigobon, Roberto, 2010. "An asset-pricing view of external adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 144-156, January.
    11. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2006. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-045, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    12. Ferson, Wayne E. & Foerster, Stephen R., 1994. "Finite sample properties of the generalized method of moments in tests of conditional asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 29-55, August.
    13. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson & Jessica Wachter, 2005. "The declining equity premium: what role does macroeconomic risk play?," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Brandt, Michael W. & Cochrane, John H. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2006. "International risk sharing is better than you think, or exchange rates are too smooth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 671-698, May.
    15. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk: A Reply," NBER Working Papers 13812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. "Countercyclical Currency Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 16427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Frank Kleibergen, 2000. "Pivotal Statistics for Testing Structural Parameters in Instrumental Variables Regression," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-055/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    18. Habib, Maurizio Michael, 2010. "Excess returns on net foreign assets: the exorbitant privilege from a global perspective," Working Paper Series 1158, European Central Bank.
    19. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2009. "Where did all the borrowing go? A forensic analysis of the U.S. external position," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Globalization, 20th Anniversary Conference, NBER-TCER-CEPR National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Robert E. Cumby, 1987. "Is it Risk? Explaining Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 2380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
    22. Cochrane, John H, 1996. "A Cross-Sectional Test of an Investment-Based Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 572-621, June.
    23. John Y. Campbell, 1985. "Stock Returns and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 1626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Tomas Dvorak & Francis E. Warnock, 2008. "Cross-Border Returns Differentials," NBER Working Papers 13768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    26. Nicholas Bloom, 2007. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
    28. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Helene Rey & Nicolas Govillot, 2010. "Exorbitant Privilege and Exorbitant Duty," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-20, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    29. Harvey, Campbell R., 1989. "Time-varying conditional covariances in tests of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 289-317.
    30. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Tomas Dvorak & Francis E. Warnock, 2009. "Decomposing the U.S. External Returns Differential," NBER Working Papers 15077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed013:75. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.