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Using the New Products Margin to Predict the Sectoral Impact of Trade Reform

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  • Kim Ruhl

    (New York University Stern School of Business)

  • Jack Rossbach

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Timothy Kehoe

    (University of Minnesota)

Abstract

This paper develops a methodology for predicting the impact of trade liberalization on exports by industry (2-digit ISIC) based on the distribution of exports before the reform by product (5-digit SITC). Using the results of Kehoe and Ruhl (2009) that much of the growth in trade after trade liberalization is in products that are traded very little or not at all, we characterize industries in Canada, Mexico, and the United States by the fractions of exports in 1988 accounted for by these least traded products. We show that a prediction of trade growth 1988–2007 by industry based on these data performs significantly better than the leading applied general models that were originally used for the policy evaluation of North American Free Trade Agreement.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2013 Meeting Papers with number 1227.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:1227

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  1. Hugo Rojas-Romagosa & J.F. Francois & L. Rivera, 2008. "Economic perspectives for Central America after CAFTA; a GTAP-based analysis," CPB Discussion Paper 99, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  2. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2011. "Trade and the Global Recession," NBER Working Papers 16666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Kozo Kiyota & Robert M. Stern, 2007. "Economic Effects of a Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement," Working Papers 557, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  4. Cox, David & Harris, Richard, 1985. "Trade Liberalization and Industrial Organization: Some Estimates for Canada," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 115-45, February.
  5. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2012. "New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 94-130, February.
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