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Estimating Nonlinear Economic Models Using Surrogate Transitions

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  • Matthew Smith

    (Federal Reserve Board)

Abstract

We propose a novel combination of algorithms for jointly estimating parameters and unobservable states in a nonlinear state space system. We exploit an approximation to the marginal likelihood to guide a Particle Marginal Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. While this algorithm seemingly targets reduced dimension marginal distributions, it draws from a joint distribution of much higher dimension. The algorithm is demonstrated on a stochastic volatility model and a Real Business Cycle model with robust preferences.

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File URL: http://www.economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2012/paper_494.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2012 Meeting Papers with number 494.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed012:494

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Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
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Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/society.htm
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  1. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Martin Uribe & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2009. "Risk Matters: The Real E¤ects of Volatility Shocks," 2009 Meeting Papers 237, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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Cited by:
  1. Rhys Bidder & Matthew E. Smith, 2013. "Doubts and variability: a robust perspective on exotic consumption series," Working Paper Series 2013-28, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Gust, Christopher & López-Salido, J David & Smith, Matthew E, 2012. "The Empirical Implications of the Interest-Rate Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 9214, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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