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Feedback Effects of Credit Ratings

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  • Gustavo Manso

    (MIT)

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    Abstract

    Rating agencies are often criticized for being biased in favor of borrowers, for being too slow to downgrade following credit quality deterioration, and for being oligopolists. Based on a model that takes into account the feedback effects of credit ratings, I show that: (i) a rating agency should focus not only on the accuracy of its ratings but also on the effects of its ratings on the probability of survival of the borrower; (ii) even when a rating agency pursues an accurate rating policy, multi-notch downgrades or immediate default may occur in response to small shocks to fundamentals; (iii) increased competition between rating agencies can lead to rating downgrades, increasing default frequency and reducing welfare.

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    File URL: http://www.economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2011/paper_1338.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2011 Meeting Papers with number 1338.

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    Date of creation: 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:red:sed011:1338

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    Cited by:
    1. Jeon, Doh-Shin & Lovo, Stefano, 2013. "Credit rating industry: A helicopter tour of stylized facts and recent theories," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 643-651.
    2. Jeon, Doh-Shin & Lovo, Stefano, 2013. "Credit Rating Industry: a Helicopter Tour of Stylized Facts and Recent Theories," IDEI Working Papers 762, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    3. Jeon, Doh-Shin & Lovo, Stefano, 2013. "Credit Rating Industry: a Helicopter Tour of Stylized Facts and Recent Theories," TSE Working Papers 13-376, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    4. Opp, Christian C. & Opp, Marcus M. & Harris, Milton, 2013. "Rating agencies in the face of regulation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 46-61.
    5. Mariano, Beatriz, 2012. "Market power and reputational concerns in the ratings industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1616-1626.

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