The maturity structure of debt, monetary policy and expectations stabilization
Abstract
This paper identifies a channel by which changes in the size and composition of government debt might generate macroeconomic instability in a standard New Keynesian model. The mechanism depends on failures of Ricardian equivalence because of learning dynamics. Under rational expectations, the model has the prediction that Ricardian equivalence holds, and the scale and composition of public debt held by households is irrelevant to the determination of inflation and output. Under learning, holdings of the public debt are perceived as net wealth, with the resulting expenditure effects shown to be destabilizing, depending on both the scale and composition of the public debt. Very short and long average debt maturities are conducive to stability, while short-to-medium average maturities tend to generate instability in the sense that much more aggressive monetary policy is required to prevent divergent learning dynamics. More heavily indebted economies are more sensitive to adjustments in maturity structure. This suggests there might be considerations, aside from the presumed stimulus from large-scale asset purchases via lower longer-term interest rates, that are relevant to evaluating recent proposals for further quantitative easing in the United States.Download Info
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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2011 Meeting Papers with number 1287.Length:
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:red:sed011:1287
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Citations
RePEc Biblio mentions
As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics: Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Eusepi, Stefano & Giannoni, Marc & Preston, Bruce, 2012.
"Long-Term Debt Pricing and Monetary Policy Transmission under Imperfect Knowledge,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8845, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Bruce Preston, 2012. "Long-term debt pricing and monetary policy transmission under imperfect knowledge," Staff Reports 547, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker, 2011.
"Fiscal Limits in Advanced Economies,"
Economic Papers,
The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 30(1), pages 33-47, 03.
- Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker, 2011. "Fiscal Limits in Advanced Economies," NBER Working Papers 16819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vasco Curdia & Andrea Ferrero & Han Chen, 2012.
"The Macroeconomic Effects of Large-Scale Asset Purchase Programs,"
2012 Meeting Papers
372, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Han Chen & Vasco Cúrdia & Andrea Ferrero, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large‐scale Asset Purchase Programmes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages F289-F315, November.
- Han Chen & Vasco Cúrdia & Andrea Ferrero, 2012. "The macroeconomic effects of large-scale asset purchase programs," Working Paper Series 2012-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Han Chen & Vasco Cúrdia & Andrea Ferrero, 2011. "The macroeconomic effects of large-scale asset purchase programs," Staff Reports 527, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2011.
"Learning the fiscal theory of the price level: some consequences of debt management policy,"
Staff Reports
515, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Eusepi, Stefano & Preston, Bruce, 2011. "Learning the fiscal theory of the price level: Some consequences of debt-management policy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 358-379.
- Leonardo Melosi & Francesco Bianchi, 2012. "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue," 2012 Meeting Papers 44, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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